Seahawks at Browns Odds & Picks
- Odds: Seahawks -1.5
- Over/Under: 46
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
The Browns are coming off an embarrassing Monday Night Football loss and now host the Seahawks as home underdogs.
Seattle has been a better bet against the spread on the road (2-0) compared to at home (0-3), and bettors have taken notice. The Seahawks are getting nearly 80% of betting tickets — the most of any team this week as of late Thursday.
Will they edge out the Browns on the road, or can Baker Mayfield and crew bounce back?
Our staff breaks down every angle of this matchup, including Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a staff pick against the spread.
Seahawks-Browns Injury Report
The Browns could potentially get their two starting corners back in Denzel Ward (hamstring) and Greedy Williams (hamstring) after they turned in limited practices to begin the week — an encouraging sign since it's the first time they’ve practiced since Week 3.
The Seahawks will likely be without D.J. Fluker (hamstring) on the offensive line, but other than that, they look good. It’s worth noting that Chris Carson (shoulder) was added to the injury report on Thursday, but he still got in a limited practice session, so there’s no need to panic yet. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Seahawks RB Chris Carson vs. Browns Run Defense
The Browns' run defense was pummeled by the 49ers' backfield on Monday, allowing 275 rushing yards at 6.9 yards per carry. Look for the Seahawks to attempt a repeat performance with the NFL’s fifth-highest run rate.
The key to the Seahawks' ground game centers around Carson. The fourth-year running back is the dominant lead back in an offense that ranks fourth with 30.8 run player per game.
Per PlayerProfiler, Carson ranks fourth in breakaway runs, eighth in evaded tackles and even third in running back catch rate. He's a true all-around offensive weapon.
Cleveland has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to opposing running backs while only seeing the 12th most carries.
With Russell Wilson posing such a threat in the passing game, the Browns will attempt to limit Carson with a majority of base front defenses, something he's seen all season. He ranks seventh at the position with a 47.9% base front carry rate.
After being eviscerated by Matt Breida (27.8 fantasy points) and Tevin Coleman (15.7 fantasy points), the key mismatch is clearly Carson against that Browns' defensive front. — Mike Randle
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Seahawks -0.5
- Projected Total: 46
This seems like the ultimate trap game.
The Seahawks beat a good Rams team on Thursday Night Football then the Browns were blown out on MNF. Primetime games can have a bigger impact on how the public perceives certain teams because more people watch them.
There was nothing positive to take away from the Browns’ performance — there are no metrics that you can point to and say they’re actually better than the Seahawks.
To back the Browns here, you have to believe their roster and coaching are better than what we’ve seen to date. I happen to be in that camp, and I specifically pointed to the Browns' tough schedule to start the year could make them a great buy-low candidate near mid-season. This is a spot I think we can cash in on that plan.
The market is getting flooded with Seahawks money as 81% of tickets are on them as of writing (see live public betting data here). It could force books to push the line up to 3, so we need to wait and see if it reaches that key number.
We also need to see if Ward and Williams are able to return. If the Browns are closer to full strength, I’ll like them even more in what will be a prime bounce back spot. — Sean Koerner
PRO System Match
Mayfield threw two interceptions and fumbled twice on Monday in the Browns' 31-3 loss to the 49ers. After Cleveland’s poor offensive performance, bettors are looking to fade them, especially as favorites against the Seahawks.
Oddsmakers know recency bias will affect the judgement of casual bettors. What the public last saw impacts how they wager the following week. As such, bookmakers will inflate the lines against teams that had a poor offensive game.
Contrarian gamblers have profited by going against the grain and betting low-scoring teams. This strategy is even more effective if there is lopsided public action. Gamblers following this Pro System have gone 148-95-4 (61%) against the spread since 2003, returning a profit of $4,430 for a $100 bettor.
The Browns are a match for this system. — John Ewing
PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.
Expert Picks
Stuckey: Browns +2
As a result of the Browns' blowout loss, the consensus has now flipped to them being terrible again. But generally speaking, NFL teams are never as good or as bad as they appear in any individual week.
We've seen this story with the Browns a few times already this season. After getting smoked in their opener against the Titans, they bounced back with a convincing win over the Jets on MNF. After losing at home to the Rams in Week 3 with a shorthanded squad, they responded the following week with a win in Baltimore.
To me, these early season results speak to the fact that Cleveland is a young, and not-so-well coached squad that will go through these ups and downs.
The Browns are still a decent AFC team in my book, and should be favored at home against the fraudulent Seahawks. Sure, they’re 4-1, which looks impressive on the surface, but look at Seattle's wins:
- Week 1: 21-20 home win over a winless Cincinnati team in a game they were out-gained by just under 200 yards
- Week 2: 28-26 road win over the Steelers, who lost Ben Roethlisberger in the first half
- Week 3: Home loss to Teddy Bridgewater and the Saints
- Week 4: 17-point road win at Arizona, but only out-gained Cards by 20 yards
- Week 5: 30-29 home win over the Rams in which a missed field goal was the deciding factor
The one bad thing about this spot is Seattle will have extra rest/prep after a Thursday night game, while Cleveland is coming back from the west coast on a short week. But I can’t pass up the Browns as home dog here.
The Browns have been a mess at times as a result of their offensive line (among other issues), but I’m not as concerned about that group this season — their line ranks 26th in adjusted sack rate, but Seattle’s defensive line ranks 25th in that same category and 21st in adjusted line yards (a measure of run defense effectiveness, per Football Outsiders).
Mayfield should have time in the pocket (assuming he doesn’t bail) to find his receivers downfield against a suspect Seahawks secondary. Just take a look at each respective team’s net yards despite a tougher schedule so far:
Browns: +0.3 (6.2 for vs. 5.9 against) | 12-11 opponent record
Seahawks: +0.2 (6.3 for vs. 6.1 against) | 9-15-1 opponent record
Give me the Browns at anything plus money.
