I was in London a few years ago during the NFL season, when the Texans were playing the Jaguars. (No, I did not travel specifically to watch that game.) I went to a pub after a real football (soccer) match to catch up on the American football action for the day.
I was by a popular London train station, and suffice it to say the number of Germans who made the trip to England for that awful game meant a game in their home country was inevitable.
Here we are, with the upstart Seahawks taking on Tom Brady in Munich.
It's always fun to start your Sunday morning with some football, especially when there's one good team involved. Oddly enough, it doesn't look like that team is even the one Brady is playing for!
Using Sean Koerner's projections in the Action Labs Player Props tool, one pick stood out to me for this game. We're fading a big-name playmaker, but the numbers show great value.
Mike Evans
Under 67.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
The Seahawks have the 29th-ranked DVOA against opposing No. 1 wide receivers this season, but they’re only allowing 62.6 receiving yards per game to those players.
So, let’s get into this matchup for Mike Evans.
There is no denying that Evans is the go-to guy in the Buccaneers offense. He has seen at least 11 targets in each of Tampa Bay’s last three games, going over this total twice in that span. In total, Evans is 5-3 to the over on 67.5 receiving yards this season.
The real concern for Evans’ total on Sunday morning is the Tampa Bay offense. The Buccaneers have scored more than 22 points just once this season, and that was in a shootout loss to the Chiefs back in Week 4.
Pick: Mike Evans Under 67.5 Receiving Yards |
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Since that loss to Kansas City, here are the Buccaneers’ point totals: 21, 18, 3, 22, 16. That last total saw the Bucs score a touchdown in the final minute of their win over the Rams.
Tampa Bay’s offense is 17th in DVOA, and its passing game is 10th compared to a 31st-ranked run game. The Bucs are hoping it’s Tom Brady’s arm that gets them out of this offensive rut. And clearly, Evans has been the go-to guy. In total, he’s seen 37 targets over the last three games.
The problem is that the Bucs are 1-2 in those games, and the offense isn’t getting any better.
Action Labs projects Evans for 59.6 yards in Munich to kick off NFL play on Sunday.
