Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Longest Reception Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The first wide receiver taken in the 2023 draft isn't quite a full-time player yet. He's typically only going to be used in three-receiver sets with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett playing the majority of two-receiver sets.
Seattle has used 11 personnel, the formation that Smith-Njigba will be used in the most, at the seventh-lowest rate this season. With that, he's only running a route on 64% of QB Geno Smith's dropbacks.
Smith-Njigba is also getting targets closer to the line of scrimmage. His average depth of target is just 2.4, which is the lowest in the NFL among qualified wide receivers and tight ends. It's going to be tough for him to see long gains because of that.
Smith-Njigba only has one catch that went for more than 15.5 yards this season, and that was a 16-yard grab in Week 2.
I think this is the perfect market to attack the rookie out of Ohio State. I'm projecting Smith-Njigba's median closer to 12.5 and have a 65% chance of him staying under 15.5 with his longest catch.
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