DK Metcalf Longest Reception Over 22.5 (-114)
Seahawks vs. Giants | 8:15 p.m. ET
If you've been on social media throughout the day, you've seen that DK Metcalf has some of the most popular props to bet on for Monday Night Football. His receiving yards total has climbed 11 yards since opening (currently as high as 70.5), but I still see value in his longest reception.
Metcalf has emerged as Geno Smith's primary deep threat, with his average depth of target increasing from 12.1 in 2022 to 14.7 through three games in 2023. He has already caught three passes for over 20 yards this season, notably a 34-yard grab last week against the Panthers.
Going up against two rookie cornerbacks, Deonte Banks and Tre Hawkins, should play to Metcalf's big-bodied advantage — not to mention the Giants play man coverage at the third-highest rate in the league. Metcalf excels against this scheme, running the ninth-most yards per route run (3.28) amongst all qualified receivers in 2022, according to Pro Football Focus.
The main selling point here is the explosive potential against Wink Martindale's defensive tendencies. The Giants lead the NFL in blitz rate entering Monday Night Football. However, despite all the extra defenders, they are 25th in pressure rate, allowing the seventh-worst DVOA (78.3%) vs. deep passes.
Metcalf has surpassed his longest reception line in 16 of his last 20 games when he's at least reached the 60-yard mark.
He is a big play waiting to happen, and I like his chances of continuing this trend.
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