Darius Slayton
Less Than 40.5 Receiving Yards
The Giants get this matchup with the Seahawks as Seattle's secondary gets healthy. Safety Jamal Adams and cornerback Tariq Woolen are set to return on Monday Night Football.
Also hurting Slayton in this market is Wan'Dale Robinson's high target share. There are a lot of mouths to feed in this Giants passing offense, and this is also a great matchup for TE Darren Waller. The veteran is yet to have a big game for the Giants this season, but Seattle has struggled through three games against opposing tight ends.
The absence of left tackle Andrew Thomas will also hurt Slayton's chances of a big play. If Daniel Jones is consistently under pressure, he'll have less time to throw deep or even look down the field for Slayton.
Slayton has gone below 40.5 receiving yards twice this season, and the only time he went over was when New York had to pass heavily in the second half of a comeback win against the Cardinals.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
More Than 2.5 Receptions
Smith-Njigba has cleared this total in two of his first three NFL games.
While Sean Koerner is on JSN's under in the longest reception market, this pick still makes sense. His average depth of target is a staggering 2.4 yards, so his receptions are not going to be of the "big play" variety. Seattle leaves those to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
Smith-Njigba has caught nine of his 14 targets this season, but he's coming off a one-catch day against the Panthers last week, when he saw three targets. I'm expecting some positive regression there.
Also, that game against Carolina saw him register a season low in targets. He saw five and six looks in the Seahawks' first two games, respectively, and we're very likely to win on this pick if he sees five again given the low average depth of target.
Bonus Pick: Geno Smith
More Than 33.5 Pass Attempts
That Smith-Njigba pick has been on and off the board all day, so I've added this one in case it's gone when you're able to log into PrizePicks.
Smith has gone beyond this total in two of the Seahawks’ first three games, and he didn’t in Week 1 because Seattle only ran 51 plays on offense. Here’s the correlation between plays run by the Seahawks and Smith’s passing attempts:
| Week | Opponent | Smith Pass Attempts | Seahawks Plays Run |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs. Rams | 26 | 51 |
| 2 | at Lions | 41 | 72 |
| 3 | vs. Panthers | 36 | 75 |
That Week 1 game against the Rams was a shocker for Seahawks fans. Los Angeles ran 81 plays and totally dominated time of possession. Matthew Stafford threw for 334 yards on 38 attempts, while Kyren Williams and Cam Akers combined for more than 40 carries. Seattle wasn't on the field enough for Smith to come close to this total.
If there are a lot of plays run this week, it would probably benefit the Seahawks. Seattle will likely lean on the pass game and play at a faster-than-average tempo, which could stop the clock more than a ground-and-pound attack. Also, it’s more likely that the Giants offense struggles to move the ball than Seattle.
Seattle has its trio of wide receivers healthy in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. While the RB duo of Kenneth Walker III and second-round rookie Zach Charbonnet is also solid, it’s clear that the Seahawks offense goes through its QB’s arm when at its best.
