Since gambling has existed, the dream of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have a Seahawks vs. Lions parlay on Monday night.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though — and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 challenge," in which he tries to hit one anytime touchdown parlay at +1800 odds or better to pay off a whole season, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Lions vs. Seahawks Monday Night Football parlay picks on DraftKings.
Seahawks vs. Lions Parlay
- Lions -4 (-110)
- Over 47 (-110)
- David Montgomery Over 7.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba 70+ Receiving Yards (+240)
Lions vs. Seahawks Parlay Odds: +1600 (DraftKings) | $10 Bet Wins $160
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -195 |
Spread Pick
Lions -4 (-110)
My colleague Nick Giffen highlighted this matchup in his Luck Rankings this week as a potential game to watch, based on the injury status of both teams (but especially Detroit).
It's been a bit of a mixed bag on that front, with center Frank Ragnow ruled out as expected, safety Brian Branch getting through concussion protocol but being marked doubtful due to illness, but the rest of the questionable Lions getting in full practices.
The biggest factor for me is the Lions' red zone numbers so far this season. They rank 26th with a sub-40% TD conversion rate this season after being one of the league's best units last season. Considering the on-paper improvements to this offense, they should be able to recapture last year's success and pick up the scoring.
Plus, the Seahawks' defensive numbers are propped up by the fact that they've faced the Broncos, Chargers, and the post-Tua Tagovailoa Dolphins so far this season, which leads me to my next pick.
Total Pick
Over 47 (-110)
"Favorite and Over" is a bit of a square way to start a parlay, but I think it's appropriate here.
I mentioned the reasons for optimism on the Lions' side with my spread pick on their side and I also don't see them holding the Seahawks down here. Seattle is a top-ten offense by points per game despite playing solid defensive units like the Broncos and Chargers.
Detroit's secondary is better than last season, but it's still a concern — especially if Branch does miss the game. He's probably their best defensive back, which will create problems matching up with the Seahawks' trio of wide receivers.
These picks together bring us to +248, the same odds we'd get if taking the under.
David Montgomery Player Prop
Over 7.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
I'm a little surprised at this line, considering Montgomery is averaging 18 yards through the air this season and has cleared this line in each of the last two games.
We have him projected with a median around 10 here, which is probably on the conservative side if we think this one turns into a shootout.
The loss of Ragnow also should shift the Lions to a more pass-focused approach, as they'll have a tougher path towards picking up yardage on the ground.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Player Prop
70+ Receiving Yards (+240)
"JSN" has started to emerge as the Seahawks' #2 option in the passing game, with more targets, routes run, receptions, and yards than Tyler Lockett.
Crucially, he also is the Seahawks' primary slot receiver, with 18 of his 21 targets coming when lined up inside.
That's important here if the Lions are, in fact, missing Branch, as he's their primary slot cornerback. Detroit's secondary has made improvements this year, but it's still not a deep unit, especially with Emmanuel Mosley still on the IR.
I'm going with 70 as the target yardage since it brings the total odds of the parlay to +1600, but you could adjust this up for a bigger payout or down for a better chance of hitting, depending on your preferences.
Full Lions vs. Seahawks Parlay Odds: +1600 | $10 Bet Wins $160
