We'll end an exciting day of NFL football with my Seahawks vs. Packers player prop.
In a big matchup in the NFC with plenty of offensive firepower, my attention is on a linebacker who has thrived in Seattle since being acquired in the middle of the season.
Seahawks vs. Packers Player Prop: Ernest Jones
Ernest Jones has cleared this in all six games since he joined the Seahawks. He’s faced a league-average schedule over that time in terms of registering tackles, and he actually gets a slight boost here against the Packers. This matchup provides a +4% increase in tackle opportunities for linebackers.
The Seahawks have only faced 23.8 rush attempts per game since Jones was acquired in Week 8. The Packers have been very run-heavy of late, though, and I’m projecting them closer to 28 rush attempts for this game, which is a huge boost for Jones.
Plus, Josh Jacobs runs inside at a 64% rate (sixth-highest rate among RBs) and whenever he gets past the line of scrimmage, it’ll likely be Jones who will potentially be in on the tackle.
I’m projecting Jones closer to nine tackles. I'm not sure why they're offering this at 7.5, but I'm projecting him around a 67% chance to clear that number.
