On Sunday, the forecast calls for average temperatures of 17 degrees when the Packers host the Seahawks at Lambeau Field (6:40 p.m. ET, FOX). The total for this Divisional Round matchup is 47.
A majority of bets are on the under, which isn't all that surprising. A theory among recreational bettors is that cold temperatures lead to low-scoring games.
Does the data support this idea or is it an old gamblers' tale that is actually creating value by going against this commonly-held theory?
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Using our Bet Labs database, which includes archived NFL betting data since the start of the 2003 season, we analyzed over/unders in cold weather games.
Seahawks vs. Packers Weather Forecast, Betting Edge
Here is how NFL overs have performed based on average temperatures since 2003:
In all games played in temperatures below 30 degrees, the over is 116-82-2 (58.6%). A $100 bettor wagering on the over in these frigid temperatures would have returned a profit of $2,776 since 2003.
Cold temperatures do not impact scoring. The likely explanation is that there is an overreaction by casual bettors when the forecast calls for blistery conditions.
Oddsmakers know the public expects low-scoring games when there is cold weather and will adjust the total down anticipating action on the under. With a deflated line and less scoring needed, it is easier for overs to hit.
In general, it has been profitable to bet the over when temperatures approach zero degrees. The public is on the Seahawks vs. Packers under and history suggests they’ll be disappointed by the results.
