Koerner’s Week 13 Fantasy Football Tiers: Is Mahomes Really in Smash Spot vs. Raiders?

Below you’ll find my tiers for Week 13 fantasy football. These are based on standard scoring and cover every position.

As a reminder, these tiers are not updated after publication. If you want my most up-to-date rankings for PPR, Standard and Half-Point PPR leagues, check out this post.

Jump to a position:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | Kicker | Defense

Quarterbacks

Tier 1
Patrick Mahomes (@ OAK)

At first glance, one might see the matchup against the 2-9 Raiders and think this is a blow-up spot for Mahomes.

The Raiders have only allowed one 300-yard passer all season and seven of the 11 quarterbacks they’ve played have thrown for fewer than 240 yards.

This is not because they have an elite pass defense; they've just been getting blown out most weeks.

On the flip side, all but one quarterback has failed to score at least two touchdowns against them. This is a high floor, but low(er) ceiling game for Mahomes. It doesn’t matter ultimately as his median projection lands him atop my quarterback rankings this week.

Tier 2
Cam Newton (@ TB)

Last week I was a bit cautious projecting Cam Newton’s rushing yards after he suffered ankle/knee injuries from Week 11. I ended up setting his projection around 26.5 rushing yards.

Sure enough, he looked near 100% healthy and put up 63 yards on the Seahawks. This is great news as he heads into a dream matchup against the Bucs.

Newton disappointed a bit in their first meeting back in Week 9, but me thinks he has a huge game this time around.

Tier 3
Jared Goff (@ DET)
Jameis Winston (vs. CAR)
Aaron Rodgers (vs. ARI)
Deshaun Watson (vs. CLE)
Ben Roethlisberger (vs. LAC)

The Cardinals are in the same camp as the Raiders — they suppress passing game outlooks due to blowout potential — but they also have a fairly solid pass defense to boot.

I keep very close tabs on Rodgers and may lower his projections some later in the week. His lack of rushing stats is my main concern, as he has only rushed for double-digit yards once in the past five games.

One of the overlooked stats for him this year is the fact that he has only thrown one interception. This gives him a bit of a boost in leagues that dock teams two points for the stat.

I wouldn’t fault you for benching him this week, but make sure whoever you start over him is ranked higher than him in my updated rankings later in the week.

Tier 4
Drew Brees (@ DAL)
Russell Wilson (vs. SF)

Wilson is heating up at just the right time for owners who were patient with his sluggish start. He is clearly over his nagging hamstring injury he dealt with up until a few weeks ago.

I do worry about his ceiling being a bit lowered this week in a home matchup against the 49ers where Seattle is a double-digit favorites.

The Seahawks could let their three-man running back by committee close out the second half with a run-heavy approach if the game is in hand.

Tier 5
Andrew Luck (@ JAX)
Kirk Cousins (@ NE)
Mitch Trubisky (@ NYG)
Carson Wentz (vs. WAS)
Lamar Jackson (@ ATL)
Matt Ryan (vs. BAL)
Dak Prescott (vs. NO)
Tom Brady (vs. MIN)

We would normally fade any quarterback who faces the Jaguars’ pass defense, but with their season virtually over, they fired their offensive coordinator, and benched their starting quarterback.

There is reason to believe the motivation won’t be there on the defensive side and Luck will exploit it.

Lamar Jackson will get another start this week as Joe Flacco appears to be out again. His elite rushing ability gives him a high floor/ceiling combo every week.

If you are in a league that rewards six points for a passing touchdown instead of the standard four, he takes a bit of a hit and I wouldn’t be starting him unless I was desperate.

Tier 6
Marcus Mariota (vs. NYJ)
Philip Rivers (@ PIT)
Matthew Stafford (vs. LAR)
Baker Mayfield (@ HOU)

With zero teams on a bye week for the rest of the season, the quarterback position is going to be very deep. It really is amazing just how good even this Tier is with what I would consider solid QB2s.

Matthew Stafford has been a huge disappointment this season and after losing Golden Tate via trade, he just lost Marvin Jones to the injured reserve.

This matchup at home against the Rams could force him to air it out, but he is very likely to be on the wrong side of my top-20 the rest of the season.

Tier 7
Case Keenum (@ CIN)
Ryan Tannehill (vs. BUF)
Colt McCoy (@ PHI)
Derek Carr (vs. KC)

This Tier rounds out the last remaining two-quarterback league upside plays. Derek Carr may have no choice but to air it out at home against the Chiefs.

There’s a chance he puts up some decent garbage-time stats, but he should only in your lineup this week out of necessity.

Tier 8
Jeff Driskel (vs. DEN)
Eli Manning (vs. CHI)
Josh Allen (@ MIA)
Cody Kessler (vs. IND)

With Andy Dalton being placed on injured reserve, Jeff Driskel will be the Bengals' starting quarterback the rest of the season. He is certainly worth a flier in deep and/or two-quarterback leagues.

His rushing ability gives him a ton of upside here, and while his passing game is a bit raw, he is likely to get A.J. Green back this week so certainly has plenty of weapons around him to put up decent numbers.

Tier 9
Nick Mullens (@ SEA)
Josh McCown (@ TEN)

Nick Mullens’ chariot has turned into a pumpkin at the stroke of midnight and I’m afraid it’s only a matter of time before he gets benched for C.J. Beathard, who should be 100% healthy again.

Not being able to put up numbers against the Buccaneers this season is a sure sign that you might not be very good at football.

Tier 10
Josh Rosen (@ GB)

While Rosen has shown some flashes of what could be a promising future, he is a complete fade in fantasy for me right now. Unlike the other rookie quarterbacks who are starting this week, Rosen doesn’t provide consistent rushing stats to help mask his weak passing stats.

He has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in five of his eight starts. That simply isn’t going to cut it in this pass-heavy era of football. He’s also very turnover prone.

Running Backs

Based on standard scoring; +/- indicates how many Tiers up/down each player would move in a PPR format.

Tier 1
Todd Gurley (@ DET)

It may seem like an eternity for Gurley owners, but he hasn’t scored a TD since Week 10. The BYE could not have come at a better time for Gurley as he appeared to be struggling with a minor ankle injury in Week 11’s shootout with KC. He should be closer to 100% this week, and thus he again gets Tier 1 all to himself.

Tier 2
Christian McCaffrey (@ TB)
Kareem Hunt (@ OAK)

Both running backs are in smash spots and have elevated ceilings this week.

While I mentioned earlier how the Raiders tend to suppress passing game stats due to getting blown out, the opposite is true for the running game. Expect the positive game script to result in more carries for Hunt, who can take it to the house from anywhere on the field.

Tier 3
Ezekiel Elliott (vs. NO)
Saquon Barkley (vs. CHI)
James Conner (vs. LAC)

It’s a bit concerning that ever since Le’Veon Bell was deemed ineligible to return in 2018, Conner has put up back-to-back stinkers. Look for him to get back on track this week.

Barkley has a tougher matchup this week, but he has proven to be matchup-proof so far. The Bears tend to be more vulnerable to pass-catching backs, so look for the Giants to dump it off to him a bit more this game to avoid running Barkley into the elite Bears defensive line.

Tier 4
Alvin Kamara (@ DAL)
Aaron Jones (vs. ARI)

Be sure to check out our Thursday Night Football prop contest this week. One of the props is whether Alvin Kamara will go over or under 103.5 total rushing/receiving yards. I set that number so I think it could go either way. See if you can beat my line on this and the other nine lines I set for a chance to win $1,000.

This is a smash spot for Aaron Jones in what should be a blowout at home against the Cardinals. He doesn’t need many touches to put up solid numbers, and we can likely bank on elevated usage, which boosts his floor and ceiling.

Tier 5
David Johnson (@ GB)
Nick Chubb (@ HOU) -1

Congrats if you were able to snatch up Nick Chubb the second the Carlos Hyde trade to the Jaguars was announced.

I noticed most tweets as soon as news broke were about Hyde/Fournette, but I immediately thought “Holy crap, Nick Chubb could be an instant RB1 the rest of the way” so sent a tweet out that sent people running to go pick him up.

Sure enough, heading into Week 13 Chubb is a rock-solid RB1, and with his increased passing-game usage, he is slowly entering the top-five conversation.

Tier 6
Joe Mixon (vs. DEN)
Phillip Lindsay (@ CIN)
Austin Ekeler (@ PIT) +1

Melvin Gordon owners took a major blow with him suffering an MCL injury that could force him to miss a couple weeks. This instantly elevates Austin Ekeler into the fringe RB1 conversation.

Incredibly efficient with limited touches, he carries massive upside with his role being elevated to that of an every-down back.

We discussed Phillip Lindsay at length in our Week 13 Fantasy Flex pod. He was a bit tricky to project earlier in the season, as we all kept expecting the undrafted free agent to eventually fizzle out and lose his job to third-rounder Royce Freeman. That has not been the case and he’s actually getting better.

I set Lindsay’s rushing yard prop this week at 76.5 yards and the sharps on our pod still hammered the over.

Tier 7
Matt Breida (@ SEA)
Lamar Miller (vs. CLE)
Josh Adams (vs. WAS)

This entire Tier’s stock is trending up at the best possible time. For this Tier just imagine me being Jim Cramer blowing horns, pulling levers and screaming “buy! buy! buy!”. I was banging the table for Breida last week as someone I can see closing out the season in a big way.

The 49ers decided to put Alfred Morris on the inactive list Week 12 and Breida responded with a 14/106/0 line on the ground and a 3/34/0 receiving line.

Lamar Miller exploded for a 12/162/1 game on Monday Night Football. Josh Adams has completely taken over the starting running back gig in Philadelphia and went for 22/84/1 in the Week 12 win over the Giants.

Tier 8
Tevin Coleman (vs. BAL)
Marlon Mack (@ JAX)
LeSean McCoy (@ MIA)
Chris Carson (vs. SF)
Mark Ingram (@ DAL)
Dalvin Cook (@ NE)
Sony Michel (vs. MIN)
Carlos Hyde (vs. IND)
James White (vs. MIN) +1
Dion Lewis (vs. NYJ)
Gus Edwards (@ ATL)

This massive Tier is basically the entire RB2 class this week. If you need to bench anyone from here this week, then it likely means your team is stacked. Mack is in concussion protocol and could miss this week’s matchup against the Jaguars.

Whether you have Mack or not, it would be wise to take a flier on Nyheim Hines (PPR) and/or Jordan Wilkins (standard), who will shoot up my rankings if Mack is ruled out. Be sure to check my updated rankings once we know for sure to see where I have the Colts backfield ranked.

Tier 9
Kenyan Drake (vs. BUF) +1
Tarik Cohen (@ NYG) +1
Adrian Peterson (@ PHI)
Jordan Howard (@ NYG)
T.J. Yeldon (vs. IND) +1
Peyton Barber (vs. CAR)
Frank Gore (vs. BUF)

Leonard Fournette is suspended this week, which means we can expect Carlos Hyde to be the starting running back.

However, this game flow could set up better for T.J. Yeldon if the Colts take control of this game. He gets even more of a boost in PPR formats and could be a great bailout play for Melvin Gordon owners who didn’t handcuff Austin Ekeler.

Tier 10
Doug Martin (vs. KC)
Isaiah Crowell (@ TEN)
LeGarrette Blount (vs. LAR)
Derrick Henry (vs. NYJ)
Theo Riddick (vs. LAR) +1
Jalen Richard (vs. KC) +1
Elijah McGuire (@ TEN)
Duke Johnson (@ HOU) +1

As always, this tier is an odd blend of between-the-tackles runners who are touchdown dependent and pass-catching backs.

Right now, I am projecting the Lions backfield as if Kerryon Johnson again misses this week due to injury.

Blount thrived in the starting role last week with a 19/88/2 game on the ground, but I think the matchup against the Rams sets up a bit better for Theo Riddick, who could be heavily involved and see 10-plus targets this week.

Wide Receivers

Tier 1
Tyreek Hill (@ OAK)
DeAndre Hopkins (vs. CLE)
Davante Adams (vs. ARI)
Michael Thomas (@ DAL)
Antonio Brown (vs. LAC)
Adam Thielen (@ NE)
Julio Jones (vs. BAL)

The elite wide receiver tier is as packed as ever this week. You can nitpick certain matchups in the above group, but every single one of these wideouts should be in all lineups this week no matter what format.

Tier 2
Brandin Cooks (@ DET)
Odell Beckham (vs. CHI)

Both wide receivers have the ceiling of the elites in Tier 1, but have just a hint of downside that moves them down to their own tier.

Again, it’s a no-brainer to have both of these guys in every single lineup across all formats. You don’t need me to remind you how good Cooks and OBJ are.

Tier 3
Robert Woods (@ DET)
Kenny Golladay (vs. LAR)
Mike Evans (vs. CAR)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (vs. LAC)
Keenan Allen (@ PIT)

Marvin Jones was officially placed on IR, so Golladay is going to see a ton of targets to close out the 2018 season. Woods is in a similar position with the Rams losing Cooper Kupp to the IR. He will be a borderline WR1 the rest of the way.

Tier 4
Emmanuel Sanders (@ CIN)
Stefon Diggs (@ NE)
T.Y. Hilton (@ JAX)

Hilton will get the Jalen Ramsey treatment this week if Ramsey plays (questionable, knee). If we benched a WR1/2 talent anytime he faced a good corner, we likely wouldn’t end up playing them much. This is a week where I’m willing to bet on Hilton’s talent to overcome the tough matchup.

It’s also worth pointing out that the Jaguars’ lost season could lower the motivation of the team this week and going forward.

Tier 5
Amari Cooper (vs. NO)
Julian Edelman (vs. MIN)
Tyler Lockett (vs. SF)
Josh Gordon (vs. MIN)
D.J. Moore (@ TB)
Corey Davis (vs. NYJ)
A.J. Green (vs. DEN)

The change in scenery has done wonders for Cooper’s value. I was admittedly skeptical that the Cowboys were a great landing spot for him, but it’s worked out well so far.

Unlike the Raiders, they appear to be game-planning to get their best wide receiver the ball. Cooper has a great matchup this week against the Saints, as Dallas may be forced to throw the ball more than it would like.

Green is expected to return this week, but is also going to have Driskel playing QB, making him a very risky play. Be sure to check back to my updated rankings later in the week as I continue to refine my projections.

Tier 6
Allen Robinson (@ NYG)
Jarvis Landry (@ HOU)
Alshon Jeffery (vs. WAS)
Tyler Boyd (vs. DEN)
Doug Baldwin (vs. SF)
Calvin Ridley (vs. BAL)
Sammy Watkins (@ OAK)

Boyd’s stock takes a bit of a hit with Dalton being sent to IR and Green expected to return.

I get that some people think Green’s presence helps Boyd avoid as much attention from the opposing defense, but when you factor in Driskel taking over, the offense just isn’t going to have many passing yards to go around. I’m afraid both factors are going to lower his value a bit going forward.

Sammy Watkins should be closer to 100% after getting the BYE week to let his nagging toe injury heal. He is still a bit of a shaky play this week, considering the Chiefs likely won’t have to throw much to put away the Raiders.

Tier 7
DeSean Jackson (vs. CAR)
Tre'Quan Smith (@ DAL)
Demaryius Thomas (vs. CLE)
David Moore (vs. SF)
Courtland Sutton (@ CIN)
Devin Funchess (@ TB)
Taylor Gabriel (@ NYG)
Adam Humphries (vs. CAR)
Larry Fitzgerald (@ GB)
Christian Kirk (@ GB)
Chris Godwin (vs. CAR)
Dede Westbrook (vs. IND)
Bruce Ellington (vs. LAR)
Sterling Shepard (vs. CHI)
DeVante Parker (vs. BUF)
Josh Reynolds (@ DET)
Anthony Miller (@ NYG)
Keke Coutee (vs. CLE)
Golden Tate (vs. WAS)

With the BYE weeks done for the 2018 season, we can expect the WR3/FLEX Tier to be extremely deep going forward. I do think it’s important to distinguish between the high-ceiling vs. the high-floor guys when making a decision that will increase your odds of winning your matchup this week (which should always be our main goal).

I always emphasize that people tend to focus on the high-ceiling plays too much when in reality, we only need to beat our one opponent that week, not the entire league.

I would lean toward the high-ceiling receivers if I am an underdog that week and/or my opponent gets off to a huge lead from players in Thursday game.

Here’s a quick breakdown of some of the players in this Tier who fit into these buckets:

High ceiling/lower floor: DeSean Jackson, Tre’Quan Smith, David Moore, Courtland Sutton, Chris Godwin, DeVante Parker

Lower ceiling/higher floor: Adam Humphries, Larry Fitzgerald, Bruce Ellington, Golden Tate

Tier 8
Kenny Stills (vs. BUF)
Quincy Enunwa (@ TEN)
Tyrell Williams (@ PIT)
Mike Williams (@ PIT)
Donte Moncrief (vs. IND)
Mohamed Sanu (vs. BAL)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (vs. ARI)
Marcell Ateman (vs. KC)
Marquise Goodwin (@ SEA)
Seth Roberts (vs. KC)

Since none of the above have safe floors to begin with, I’d be more willing to gamble if I’m being forced to start a receiver in this range. It likely means you are stacked at every other position or you have weaker team that needs a spark.

Ateman could be one of those wild dart throws that is likely available in most leagues. With the Raiders’ receiver depth chart decimated by injuries, Ateman has played roughly 90% of the team’s snaps the past two weeks, saw 10 targets last week, and gets a matchup against the Chiefs defense.

Plus, it would be extra rewarding to talk trash to your opponent and say “I beat you with Marcell Ateman on my team!”

Tight Ends

Tier 1
Travis Kelce (@ OAK)
Zach Ertz (vs. WAS)

As expected, Ertz bounced back from his Week 11 dud with a solid 7/91/1 game last week. Kelce will likely need to get most of his production in the first half this week. I have mentioned it numerous times, but the Raiders typically allow huge touchdown production, not yardage.

Tier 2
George Kittle (@ SEA)
Rob Gronkowski (vs. MIN)

With Gronk appearing to be near 100%, he and Kittle form this sub-elite tier at tight end. They will provide sneaky value in the fantasy playoffs as the tight end position could be a critical one for teams looking to win the championship.

Tier 3
Eric Ebron (@ JAX)
Jared Cook (vs. KC)

Now that Jack Doyle has been placed on IR, Ebron needs to be treated as a high-end TE1 the rest of the way. He already proved that he can put up elite numbers without Doyle in the mix (congrats if you hung on to him).

Cook also has a ton of upside in his matchup against the Chiefs, as the Raiders will need to throw a ton to keep it close.

Tier 4
Greg Olsen (@ TB)

Olsen has only put up 20 total yards the past two games combined. I always point out to not overreact to small sample sizes at tight end, as the position is always going to be inconsistent. Expect him to bounce back in a great matchup against the Buccaneers this week.

Tier 5
Cameron Brate (vs. CAR)
Jordan Reed (@ PHI)
David Njoku (@ HOU)
Trey Burton (@ NYG)

Burton has been a touchdown-dependent TE1 who isn’t scoring touchdowns. Unless you have anyone ranked above him, I’m afraid you have to start Burton until further notice. If you sit him, you could be passing up a solid game with him on the bench and be playing a very frustrating game of whack-a-mole.

I will say that if Trubisky is ruled out again this week, Burton could drop in my rankings, so be sure to check my updated rankings to see where he ends up before making any start/sit decisions.

Tier 6
Austin Hooper (vs. BAL)
Jimmy Graham (vs. ARI)
Vance McDonald (vs. LAC)
Christopher Herndon (@ TEN)
Kyle Rudolph (@ NE)
Matt LaCosse (@ CIN)
C.J. Uzomah (vs. DEN)

You may be surprised to see LaCosse’s name in this Tier and I don’t blame you. Jeff Heuerman was placed on IR this week, setting up LaCosse to be Denver’s starting tight end the rest of the way.

He actually popped up on my radar last week when I noticed he had a reception in all seven of the games he has played in this year. In Week 12, he extended that streak to eight games with a 3/34/1 performance.

I tentatively expect LaCosse to play double his snaps starting this week and possibly see five or more targets. Heuerman led all receivers and tight ends  with 13 red-zone targets this season, so it’s also not crazy to think LaCosse's touchdown potential could push him to TE1 potential.

Tier 7
Jonnu Smith (vs. NYJ)
Nick Vannett (vs. SF)
Evan Engram (vs. CHI)

Smith is trending toward putting up the numbers we knew he was capable of achieving. He now has three touchdowns in the past four games, including a 61-yarder this past Monday.

The potential has always been there, but it takes tight ends a season or two to round into form. You could do worse than Smith if you are in a deep league and desperate at tight end.

Tier 8
Gerald Everett (@ DET)
Ben Watson (@ DAL)

Both of these guys are just a cheap way to invest in the explosive Rams/Saints offenses. Everett has some serious upside and could see his role grow with Kupp out for the season. With three touchdowns in the past two games, he makes for a what-the-heck touchdown gamble and is much more valuable in dynasty formats.

Kickers

Tier 1
Harrison Butker (@ OAK)
Greg Zuerlein (@ DET)

Tier 2
Wil Lutz (@ DAL)
Graham Gano (@ TB)
Mason Crosby (vs. ARI)
Stephen Gostkowski (vs. MIN)

Tier 3
Sebastian Janikowski (vs. SF)
Adam Vinatieri (@ JAX)
Justin Tucker (@ ATL)
Chris Boswell (vs. LAC)
Ka'imi Fairbairn (vs. CLE)
Matt Bryant (vs. BAL)
Cairo Santos (vs. CAR)
Ryan Succop (vs. NYJ)
Jake Elliott (vs. WAS)

Tier 4
Cody Parkey (@ NYG)
Matt Prater (vs. LAR)
Josh Lambo (vs. IND)
Brett Maher (vs. NO)
Mike Badgley (@ PIT)
Dan Bailey (@ NE)
Jason Sanders (vs. BUF)
Brandon McManus (@ CIN)

Tier 5
Greg Joseph (@ HOU)
Robbie Gould (@ SEA)
Aldrick Rosas (vs. CHI)
Steven Hauschka (@ MIA)
Randy Bullock (vs. DEN)
Dustin Hopkins (@ PHI)
Daniel Carlson (vs. KC)

Tier 6
Jason Myers (@ TEN)
Zane Gonzalez (@ GB)

Defenses

Tier 1
Green Bay Packers (vs. ARI)
Tennessee Titans (vs. NYJ)
Seattle Seahawks (vs. SF)

Tier 2
Miami Dolphins (vs. BUF)
Denver Broncos (@ CIN)
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. WAS)
Chicago Bears (@ NYG)
Houston Texans (vs. CLE)

Tier 3
Kansas City Chiefs (@ OAK)
Los Angeles Rams (@ DET)
Indianapolis Colts (@ JAX)
Buffalo Bills (@ MIA)
New England Patriots (vs. MIN)

Tier 4
Carolina Panthers (@ TB)
New Orleans Saints (@ DAL)
New York Jets (@ TEN)
Atlanta Falcons (vs. BAL)
Cleveland Browns (@ HOU)
Washington Redskins (@ PHI)
New York Giants (vs. CHI)
Cincinnati Bengals (vs. DEN)

Tier 5
Baltimore Ravens (@ ATL)
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. LAC)
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. IND)
Los Angeles Chargers (@ PIT)
Minnesota Vikings (@ NE)

Tier 6
San Francisco 49ers (@ SEA)
Arizona Cardinals (@ GB)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. CAR)

Tier 7
Detroit Lions (vs. LAR)
Dallas Cowboys (vs. NO)
Oakland Raiders (vs. KC)