Seahawks vs Ravens Odds, Prediction, NFL Week 9 Pick

Seahawks vs. Ravens odds have Baltimore installed as a 6.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks on Sunday morning, one point higher than where this spread was on Saturday night.

Baltimore has won three straight games and faces a Seahawks team that hopes its defense is getting healthy at the right time. The addition of defensive lineman Leonard Williams at the trade deadline will help, as well.

Historical trends suggest taking Seattle as road underdogs, but I’m focusing on current data points to help inform my Seahawks vs. Ravens prediction and pick. Let's break it down.

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While six points seemed a bit too rich at first glance, a deep dive into Baltimore’s dominance shows why it’s a reasonable number to cover.

The Ravens aren’t just red hot – they’re scalding.

Lamar Jackson and company have been lethal during a three-game winning streak in which they’ve destroyed the opposition. They’re averaging a league-high 31.0 PPG over that span and are beating teams by an average of 15.6 points.

Overall, the Ravens offense has been lights out all year, ranking fifth in points per game (25.3). I’m a huge fan of DVOA, and they rank among the league leaders in total offense (fourth), rushing (second) and passing (11th).

Equally impressive is Baltimore’s defense. They’ve given up the fewest points in the league (15.1) and the fifth fewest over the last three weeks (15.3). They’re particularly dominant at home, allowing only 12.3 PPG, which is second best in the NFL. Additionally, they dominate across the board in defensive DVOA, ranking first in total defense, first in passing and fifth in rushing.

Put it all together and the Ravens boast the league’s third-best average scoring margin (+10.1). They’re also nearly twice as good at home (+15.0) as on the road (+7.2). Additionally, their +15.7 average scoring margin over the last three weeks is far and away tops in the league, with Jacksonville second at +11.3.

Baltimore’s beating opponents by an average of 14.5 points, while only one of their six victories have been by less than six points. When the Ravens click, they don’t just beat teams, but beat up on them. So, again, while six points seemed a bit too rich at first glance, I’m not as worried about it after looking into the underlying numbers.

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Conversely, Seattle's underlying numbers have me leery about the current NFC West leaders. They might be 5-2 and rank high in several important categories, but I’m not sure we can put much stock in them as they’ve faced the third-easiest schedule to date. Their .396 strength of schedule trails only the Cowboys (.370) and Saints (.390). This week should be a good barometer to find out whether they are legit contenders or frauds.

Personally, I’m skeptical of them, especially on defense. While they allow only 19.7 PPG, they’ve faced several DVOA bottom dwellers, including the Giants (32nd), Panthers (30th) and Browns (28th). On the flip side, they’ve given up at least 30 points to the only top 10 teams they've faced all year — the Lions (sixth) and the Rams (10th). Now they face a Ravens team that ranks fourth, which is why I think Seattle will have its hands full.

The Seahawks face a daunting task when Jackson tucks it and runs. Seattle has surrendered the seventh-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this year (23.1), and Jackson is hands down the best running QB in NFL history. He's up to his usual tricks once again, averaging 47.5 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. Additionally, his 380 rushing yards on the year are more than 11 teams’ top running back.

However, while I clearly prefer the Ravens laying the points, Evan Abrams’ weekly primer provides a litany of reasons that gives me slight pause. I’m all about using all possible information to make decisions, so I highly advise taking note of trends such as John Harbaugh and Jackson’s record as home favorites, as well as Pete Carroll and Geno Smith’s record as road 'dogs.

The Ravens are the hottest team in the league, and I’ll ride them like Secretariat until they cool off. As explained, they've been covering by a substantial margin and show no signs of letting up.

Meanwhile, I’m simply not sold on a Seahawks team that’s feasted on the feeble yet struggled against competent opponents. While I'd prefer the number be a bit lower, I'm completely comfortable backing the Ravens to win by at least a touchdown.