Cowboys vs Seahawks Odds
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +370 |
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Cowboys vs. Seahawks odds have Dallas installed as a 9.5-point favorite across the board. The Thursday Night Football over/under has held steady at 47.5, and that's the target of my NFL pick for this game comes.
The Seahawks (6-5) and Cowboys (8-3) are trending in opposite directions, with Seattle dropping two straight games and Dallas winning three straight in blowout fashion. Both teams enter Week 13 in playoff spots, though the Seahawks are in a precarious spot. They're nearly double-digit underdogs and have upcoming back-to-back games against the 49ers (again!) and Eagles.
Let's preview Thursday Night Football and get to my Cowboys vs. Seahawks prediction.
Cowboys vs Seahawks Pick, Prediction
Cowboys vs. Seahawks
Matchup Analysis
When Seattle Has the Ball
After a 6-3 start, the Seahawks have hit a rough patch.
I doubled down on the Seahawks to go under 9.5 wins — I bet them to go under in my preseason Win Total guide — because they had the fifth-easiest schedule heading into Week 11. They have the fourth-toughest remaining schedule, which continues on TNF against the Cowboys.
It’s easy to blame Geno Smith for Seattle's recent struggles, but I think a lot of the blame should be placed on the offensive line. That unit allowed Smith to be pressured on 47% of his dropbacks last week against the 49ers. The right side of the line was particularly ghastly, with Phil Haynes and Stone Forsythe each allowing at least three pressures. Seattle also tried out 41-year-old Jason Peters at right tackle last week, and he allowed three pressures on just 12 pass blocks.
Haynes (toe) has been ruled out for TNF, which means fourth-round rookie Anthony Bradford will likely get the start. The right side of Seattle's line will continue to be an issue, and Micah Parsons and the rest of the Cowboys front seven should take advantage.
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When Dallas Has the Ball
The Cowboys offense, operating at a sky-high level right now, has been an absolute juggernaut at AT&T Stadium, scoring at least 38 points in four straight home games.
The Seahawks defense ranks just 22nd in DVOA but is much better on paper. Part of the Seahawks' below-average ranking has to do with the slow start to begin the season when the secondary was dealing with a handful of injuries.
Safety Jamal Adams is finally healthy, while cornerback Riq Woolen has struggled but has already shown he can be one of the best at his position in the NFL. Fellow CB Devon Witherspoon is already one of the NFL's best corners as a rookie. Edge rusher Boye Mafe has enjoyed a breakout season in Year 2, and the return of Bobby Wagner has improved the run defense. Seattle also recently acquired veteran Leonard Williams to help bolster its D-line.
I think Seattle's defensive unit can at least slow down the Dallas offense and potentially keep the Cowboys under 30 points. Dak Prescott has been good no matter what defenses throw at him, but he has been elite against man coverage and not quite “as good” against zone. Notable, because Seattle plays zone at the second-highest rate.
*ANY/A: Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
| Stat | vs. Man | vs. Zone |
|---|---|---|
| ANY/A | 3rd | 8th |
| Success Rate | 2nd | 14th |
| EPA Per Play | 3rd | 3rd |
| QB Rating | 2nd | 4th |
DaRon Bland has an NFL record five pick-sixes this season, which could be part of why Dallas has a -5.7 Luck Total rating (averaging close to six points more points per game than you would expect). Bland has been very good this season and seems to have a knack for defensive scores, but the pick-six is a pretty fluky play that the Cowboys can’t bank on going forward.
Cowboys vs. Seahawks
Betting Picks & Predictions
I expect Seattle’s offensive line issues to continue on the right side, especially with Haynes out. Smith should face quite a bit of pressure from the Cowboys D-line, which will make it tough to move the ball and score points.
However, I still think the Seahawks defense is underrated — at least on paper — and finally healthy. The total has been bet up past the key number of 47 to 47.5, so this is the time to lock it in. Don't forget, unders in primetime games are 29-9 (76%) this season.
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