The NFL playoffs are finally here, and it starts with finding a 49ers vs. Seahawks pick.
No one expected Brock Purdy and Geno Smith to kick off our NFL postseason, but here we are. Looking at the 49ers vs. Seahawks odds, you wouldn't think that a seventh-round rookie could be laying 9.5 points, but here we are.
Purdy is Mr. Irrelevant, the final pick from the worst quarterback draft in years. He started the season as a third-string backup who's now an undefeated starter and Offensive Rookie of the Year Award candidate for the league's hottest team. Smith was even more irrelevant before setting the Seahawks' single-season passing record and leading Seattle on a shocking run to the playoffs.
Both quarterbacks make their playoff debut in the Wild Card Round, but one of them will have far more help than the other. The 49ers are near double-digit favorites after owning this regular season matchup and finishing the year on a 10-game win streak.
San Francisco has flaws that a top opponent may be able to exploit down the line, but Seattle is not that opponent. The 49ers should roll to an easy win and cover. Let's look at the betting trends and odds and see why San Francisco is the right heavy favorite to back.
49ers vs. Seahawks Odds
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | -500 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | +375 |
49ers vs. Seahawks Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the 49ers and Seahawks match up statistically:
49ers vs. Seahawks DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 14 | 1 | |
| Pass DVOA | 8 | 5 | |
| Rush DVOA | 23 | 2 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 6 | 21 | |
| Pass DVOA | 3 | 17 | |
| Rush DVOA | 13 | 25 | |
All the focus for the 49ers has been on Purdy replacing Jimmy Garoppolo, but San Francisco's offense has barely budged with the change. Head coach Kyle Shanahan simplifies things for his quarterbacks, and Purdy is doing most of the same things Jimmy G. was doing, with a bit more mobility.
The more important change was at RB, not QB.
Christian McCaffrey's arrival has transformed San Francisco's offense into a juggernaut. The numbers speak for themselves.
Before McCaffrey arrived, the 49ers offense ranked 22nd by DVOA, 15th in passing and an ugly 26th running. But from Week 8 forward, with McCaffrey in the lineup, the offense has been as good as any, ranking 1st in passing, 3rd rushing and 2nd overall.
San Francisco just has so many weapons. On top of McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel is back in the mix, George Kittle has enjoyed a resurgence, Brandon Aiyuk broke out, Elijah Mitchell got healthy and Kyle Juszczyk remains an all-everything threat. Oh, and Trent Williams leads the dominant offensive line.
Credit Purdy for stepping in and playing well, but a lot of guys would look good in this system loaded with talent. They'd also look pretty good playing Seattle's defense, which fell apart down the stretch after a decent midseason run. The Seahawks never really learned how to tackle — bad news against a team with all these weapons.
Bet San Francisco vs. Seattle at FanDuel
It's important to remember that this is also a first for Geno Smith, and he's got a lot less help.
Smith had a wonderful season, but has struggled under pressure all year, and sacks and interceptions started to pile up late in the season as his young offensive line crumbled.
Seattle's offense faltered down the stretch, especially the passing attack, while San Francisco has the league's best defense. The Seahawks faced a top-10 DVOA defense only four times all season. They fell behind 21-3, 21-3 and 20-0 in three of those games — two against San Francisco.
Give Pete Carroll and Smith credit for an awesome renaissance season, but it hasn't worked against top competition.
San Francisco won the previous meetings 27-7 and 21-13, and the defense dominated both games. Seattle had under 500 yards in the two games combined, turning it over four times and looking DOA from the opening kickoff.
If Seattle wants any chance of hanging around, it will need to own the special teams battle, eliminate turnovers and hit explosive pass plays to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, then hope Purdy turns into a pumpkin at the worst time possible.
Betting Picks
It's telling that the first two bets I considered here were a 49ers team total over and a Seahawks team total under. I have a hard time seeing Seattle stopping this offense, and I have just as difficult a time envisioning the Seahawks scoring on the Niners.
The NFL expanded the playoffs to seven teams from each conference two years ago. In the old system, the 49ers would've had a bye this week. They'll play in the new setup, but 2-seeds have dominated 7-seeds thus far, winning all four matchups, three of them by 12, 16 and 21 points.
Home favorites of more than nine points in the Wild Card Round are a perfect 9-0 ATS over the past two decades, covering inflated spreads by almost a touchdown per game. One of these teams is a bonafide Super Bowl contender; the other had a nice run and eked into the playoffs with the help of a Lions win, but would've missed the postseason in every format until the last few years. Sometimes, we just need to not overthink things.
San Francisco is red hot. The 49ers have won 10 in a row, seven by double digits, enough to cover this number. They outclass Seattle by a wide margin.
Keep it simple and back the 49ers to win and cover. I'll play this to -10. As of 11 a.m. ET on Saturday, Caesars was the only sportsbook still posting 49ers -9.
Pick: 49ers -9.5 | Bet to -10 |
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