Bears-Steelers Odds, Picks, Predictions
| Pick |
|---|
| Bears +7 |
| Lean Bears +7 |
| Steelers ML -265 |
| Najee Harris Over 19.5 Rush Attempts |
Bears +7
Raheem Palmer: With a spread of 6.5 and a total of just 40, oddsmakers are telling us points will be at a premium in Monday night's matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Chicago Bears. Given that we're not likely to see a high-scoring game, I don't like the idea of laying 6.5 points with an offense featuring a washed Ben Roethlisberger that is 23rd in EPA/play, 31st in success rate, 32nd in dropback success rate and 28th in rushing success rate. This is also a Steelers offense that doesn't generate explosive plays, ranking 20th in explosive run play rate and 28th in explosive pass play rate.
With Justin Fields improving week by week, I think the Bears can do enough to cover against this Steelers team that has gone 0-3 as a favorite this season. The Steelers lost outright as 5.5-point home favorites against the Raider and as 2.5-point home favorites against the Bengals and barely escaped in overtime as 5.5-point home favorites against the Geno Smith-led Seahawks. I'll back the Bears at +6.5 and would bet this down to +6.
Lean Bears +7
Brandon Anderson: Feel free to make alternate Monday night plans. This one could be ugly.
The total is at 40 and falling, and even that still feels a smidge high. Bears games are averaging 39.8 points per game this season, and Steelers games are even lower at 37.7. Chicago games have been at 41 or fewer points in six of eight, and no Steelers game has hit 47 yet.
Every point will matter in this game, and that's why I lean Bears +6.5. Both defenses are better than either offense.
The Bears' defensive metrics have slipped over the past month, but that'll happen against the Raiders, Packers, Bucs and 49ers. Pittsburgh ain't any of those teams. Chicago can be run on, but Pittsburgh's line still can't create holes. And while the Steelers' pass defense has looked elite lately, the Bears can't pass, and they'd rather run anyway.
The Bears are on a three-game losing streak, but such teams opponents on a two- or three-game winning streak are 58-32-2 ATS, covering 64% of what's usually an inflated line.
Remember, we back Mike Tomlin as an underdog and fade him as a favorite. When Tomlin is favored by more than a field goal, he's just 54-69-1 ATS. His Steelers have failed to cover five straight in that spot and lost three of them outright. Pittsburgh just loves to play to the level of its opponent.
Pittsburgh will be a popular teaser on Monday night, and it feels like a trap. Chicago covers in an ugly, low-scoring game, and the Bears should have a chance to steal one on the road.
Steelers -265
Chris Raybon: The Steelers have the clear edge on both sides of the ball here — I make the line Steelers -7 — but covering a spread of -6 is tough in a game with this low of a point total. Despite the Steelers' 4-3 straight-up record, they have won by seven points or more in only two of their seven games, and one of those was an eight-point win over Denver that could have ended differently if cornerback James Pierre hadn't intercepted Teddy Bridgewater in the end zone to end the game. Therefore, I'm looking to invest in the Steelers by either targeting their moneyline.
This is a spot where Mike Tomlin's team almost always ends up on the right side of the scoreboard.
I'd play this to -285. Read my entire betting preview for this game — and this pick — in my Monday Night Football guide here.
Najee Harris Over 19.5 Rush Attempts
Michael Arinze: The Steelers rattled off three consecutive wins to move into second place in the AFC North with a 4-3 record. They'll look to keep that streak alive on Monday night when the Bears come to town.
A big part of the Steelers' recent success is that their offense looks much more balanced. This season, they're ranked seventh in pass play percentage (63.53%), but that number's dropped to 51.74% in their last three games.
Pittsburgh is a team that needs to run the ball to avoid exposing the aging Ben Rothlisberger. Judging by the numbers, it seems there's been a slight shift in their game plan as the team is showing more trust in their rookie running back, Najee Harris.
Harris averaged just 13.75 carries through the first four games, and the Steelers went 1-3. Now, he's averaging 24.33 carries over the last three games and Pittsburgh is 3-0. That likely won't go unnoticed by Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin. It's not as if Harris earned those carries against a bunch of cupcakes, either.
The Steelers' last two games were against the Browns and Seahawks. Both of those teams are third and 12th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA. On Monday, Harris will be up against a Bears defense that's 24th in DVOA against the run.
BetMGM is offering his rushing attempt prop at 19.5 carries. This number seems short to me, so I'd look to play it up to 21.
