Sportsbooks will post topical bets each week under the NFL specials tab. One prop that caught my attention involves Ryan Fitzpatrick's passing yards in Week 3.
So, let's get to it.
Over/Under 280.5 passing yards
- Over (-130)
- Under (EVEN)
>> Check out the FantasyLabs prop tool to see the nine MNF props rated a 10 out of 10 value, according to our industry-leading projections. All odds referenced here are as of noon ET on Monday.
Let's start with the obvious: Fitzpatrick's season is off to an absurd start through two weeks. He is averaging more than 400 passing yards and four touchdowns per game, while posting an absurd 13.4 yards per attempt.
The over on this pick is enticing to a lot of bettors for a few reasons. First, they've seen Fitzpatrick throttle defenses in his past two starts. Plus, the Steelers just got torched by Patrick Mahomes for 326 yards and six touchdowns.
Also, recency bias is one hell of a drug.
On the other hand, Fitzpatrick's career yards-per-game average is a paltry 206 passing yards and in his 121 career starts he's thrown for more than 280.5 yards just 25 times.
It's also noteworthy that Pittsburgh likes send to pressure, generating the third-most pressures in the league this season and ranking fourth in adjusted sack rate this year. And since 2017, the Steelers have allowed just 243.56 passing yards per game.
Additionally, Buccaneers center Ryan Jensen (illness) was added to the injury report Monday afternoon and is now questionable to play.
Sean Koerner, The Action Network's head of analytics stated, "I would think a fair line would be around 270.5. They are clearly banking on FitzMagic hype to take action on the over for this prop."
Fitzpatrick's line opened at 285.5 with over and under both at -120, I still like the under despite the drop in yardage, but this time at even money.
