The last hoorah for DraftKings' early win promotion — for now, at least — will take place on Thursday Night Football between the Steelers and Browns.
The Action Network reported on Tuesday that the sportsbook would halt the promo after Thursday Night Football — and perhaps for good.
The value pick is on the Steelers at a current price of +160.
Steelers vs. Browns NFL Up 7, Early Win Prediction
The promotion is for straight, moneyline picks only. If the team you wager on goes up by seven points or more at any point in the game, your bet will cash no matter what happens for the rest of the game.
So, if your team receives the ball first and marches down the field for a touchdown on their first possession? That's a W, contingent on making the extra point attempt.
Generally, going with the underdog is the way to go. One of our writers, the PromoGuy, lays it out in this story, but essentially the worse a team is, the more positive expected value you're expected to gain.
The PromoGuy is rolling with the Steelers, though he got in earlier in the week at the better price of +170.
Had you tailed all of his picks on this promotion through Week 2 as a $500 max bettor, you’d be up $5,750 in net profit for two days of work.
A $100 bettor would be up a profit of $1,150 for $2,900 total risked. That’s an ROI of 39%.
Another data point that backs up a pick on the Steelers: In games with low totals, underdogs are 89-55-4 ATS (62%) since 2018. For reference, a win rate of 52% is enough to turn a profit.
"Low totals" are games with an over/under of 41.5 or lower at the time of kickoff.
For Steelers vs. Browns, the total is 38.5. That's on account of two bad offenses, but also because of weather data that our own PJ Walsh discusses in this story here.
Winds of up to 21 mph are expected at kickoff and may peak at around 35 mph. There's also a 20% chance of rain. These conditions are historically conducive to underdogs finding success.
And yet another minor data point: Browns coach Kevin Stefanski is 1-11 against-the-spread (ATS) in divisional games in his career. That's an 8% win rate, albeit over a very small sample size.
As aforementioned, the team you'd bet on needs to only go up by seven or more at any point in the game. If the Steelers are able to keep this a relatively close game, the value will be there. And if you're feeling antsy, there will be good opportunities to hedge, too.
