Since the dawn of gambling, the idea of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal.
Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have a Steelers vs. Browns parlay tonight.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. Fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate given the tangled web of correlation between each leg. However, parlays are fun. And just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which hit in Week 7 and again last week, we'll be operating with a similar goal.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Thursday Night Football parlay for Week 12 on DraftKings.
Steelers vs. Browns Parlay
- Steelers -3.5 (-110)
- Over 37 (-108)
- Jameis Winston Over 19.5 Completions (-105)
- George Pickens Anytime TD +195
Full Steelers vs. Browns Parlay Odds: +1200 | $10 Bet Wins $120
Parlay Leg 1: Steelers -3.5
The Steelers have won five in a row, including all four since making the switch to Russell Wilson at quarterback. It's been a bit of a bumpy ride, but they even managed to take first place in the AFC North from Baltimore with an 18-16 win in Week 11.
The key to the team is the defense, which ranks second in points per game allowed. They should have a field day against Jameis Winston, who had a fun first game as a starter, but in the past two weeks has taken nine sacks and thrown three interceptions.
The Browns are a bottom-10 defense in total scoring allowed and the league's second-worst offense, so it's somewhat surprising to see this line at just 3.5 against a good team like Pittsburgh. The Steelers opened as just 2.5-point favorites and some books have already moved to 4.0, so we seem to be on the right side of the action with this pick.
Parlay Leg 2: Steelers-Browns Over 37
While I'm typically all about the primetime unders, the market has overcorrected a bit here — probably due to the Steelers failure to score even a single touchdown last week in their win against the Ravens.
Outside of that game, they've averaged over 30 points per game with Wilson under center in games against the Commanders, Jets and Giants. Two of those three are better defenses (by DVOA) than Cleveland, with the Giants effectively equal.
On the Cleveland side, they're at least theoretically capable of putting up points with Winston under center. High risk/high reward quarterbacking results in points for somebody, at least.
I'm not expecting this to turn into a shootout, but a 24-14 win for Pittsburgh doesn't seem like too much to ask.
Parlay Leg 3: Jameis Winston Over 19.5 Passing Completions (-105)
I was pleasantly surprised to find this line, considering how the Browns offense has operated since Jameis Winston took over.
They rank third in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) over the past four weeks, three of which Winston started and one he finished. In his full games, he's finished with no fewer than 41 passing attempts or 26 completions.
The market here is clearly scared of a Steelers defense that ranks top-10 in DVOA against the pass, but that's not the relevant stat here. Pittsburgh is roughly average in terms of completions allowed, with more of a "bend don't break" defensive scheme.
Plus, with the Browns as underdogs (and this parlay betting on Pittsburgh covering) that should keep the pass rate high.
Parlay Leg 4: George Pickens Anytime TD
We aren't getting great parlay odds on this, thanks to already having the Steelers and the over as part of the parlay.
However, our PRO projections love this play, with the fair value of a George Pickens anytime touchdown at around +140, but DraftKings setting the line at +195.
Pickens is averaging just under eight targets per game with Wilson at quarterback, and has at least one red zone look in all four games with Wilson under center. On top of that, Cleveland is a softer pass defense than run defense, so it makes sense to attack the Browns through the air.
Adding the anytime touchdown brings the total odds to the parlay to +1200, but be sure to utilize any potential profit boost tokens available when placing it.
Full Steelers vs. Browns Parlay Odds: +1200 | $10 Bet Wins $120
