Thursday Night Football Week 12 is here, as the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2) travel to face off against the Cleveland Browns (2-8). Kickoff from Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
I have a bevy of picks for tonight in what could be an ugly game in potentially bad weather. I have bets on three Steelers and two Browns.
Let's get to my Steelers vs. Browns props and my NFL props for Thursday Night Football.
Sam Farley's Steelers vs. Browns Player Props
- Russell Wilson Under 0.5 Interceptions (-120, bet365)
- George Pickens Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
- George Pickens Anytime Touchdown (+225, BetMGM)
- Najee Harris Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-128, FanDuel)
- Nick Chubb Under 51.5 Rushing Yards (-120, DraftKings)
- Jerry Jeudy Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)
Russell Wilson Under 0.5 Interceptions (-120)
The redemption of Russell Wilson is arguably one of the NFL’s best stories so far this season and although it’s been just four games, the 35-year-old looks like a different beast from the quarterback we saw in Denver – or even in his final season in Seattle. Through four games he’s had four wins, thrown six touchdown passes and looks to have his mojo back.
That said, there’s been one issue, interceptions. He’s giving up one every other game. That is a concern, however, this Browns’ defense has been terrible at intercepting passes. They’re ranked second-to-last in the NFL with just two picks in 10 games, and shouldn’t be expected to grab one here.
George Pickens Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The weather is obviously a potential concern, with passing potentially more difficult if the reality matches the worst forecasts. Regardless, we should see George Pickens cover a 57.5 receiving yard line that feels very, very low.
Nobody on the Steelers’ roster has benefitted from the change to Wilson more than Pickens. In six games with Justin Fields as his quarterback, Pickens averaged just 60.5 receiving yards per game. Well, that has increased to 91.2 yards per game since the change. With the Browns giving up 154.5 yards to receivers each game, Pickens should be able to cover 57.5 yards with ease.
George Pickens Anytime Touchdown (+230)
We’re doubling down on the former Georgia receiver, who has also seen himself find the endzone more consistently with Wilson under center. Pickens didn’t score a single touchdown in six games with Fields, but has two in four games with Wilson.
The Browns are giving up 1.6 touchdowns per game to wide receivers, the second-worst mark in the NFL, meaning we should see Pickens given every opportunity to find the endzone on Thursday Night Football, especially given that he’s averaging 8.25 targets per game.
Najee Harris Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-128)
While the switch to Wilson has largely impacted the Steelers ability to get the ball downfield through the air, it has also changed the fortunes for running back Najee Harris. With Wilson rushing far less than Fields, the fourth-year running back has seen an increase in carries.
In the four games with Wilson at quarterback Harris has averaged 19.75 carries per game, with his lowest number of carries being 18 last week against a very good Ravens’ rush defense. With the Steelers favored and the possibility of bad weather, the game script will surely mean Harris gets 17+ carries.
Nick Chubb Under 51.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Despite concerns that the weather might lead to more carries, it seems wise to fade Nick Chubb. It’s been heart-warming to see him return to the field after that horrific injury, but the reality is that he doesn’t look quite the same right now. It’s going to take time to get that pop and explosiveness back, if it’s even possible at all.
He’s failed to exceed 52.5 rushing yards in any of his four games since returning, even if he did get close on a couple of occasions. The biggest concern for Chubb backers is that last week against the Saints he saw his fewest carries since the week he returned. That coincided with increased usage for Jerome Ford, who had five carries to Chubb’s 11. With the Steelers being pretty good against the run and able to stack the box, plus the potential of Ford eating into Chubb’s volume, we need to take the under.
Jerry Jeudy Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The final selection of a really prop-friendly game is on Browns’ receiver Jerry Jeudy. When Amari Cooper was traded it initially looked like Cedric Tillman could be the man to step up and become WR1 in Cleveland, especially with Jeudy catching just one-of-six targets for 18 yards in that first game post-Cooper.
That hasn’t happened and the past three games have seen Jeudy heavily targeted by Jameis Winston, with whom he seems to have developed a real connection. Additionally, Jeudy has delivered the goods, averaging 98 receiving yards over the past three games. He’s starting to look like the guy the Broncos thought they were getting when he was drafted 15th overall in 2020. Don’t overthink the weather, we know Winston loves to sling the rock and Jeudy should have the opportunity to cover this line.
