I wish I could get more excited for a Thursday Night Football game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns, but it’s going to be rather difficult. These are two rough-looking offenses and the total is just 38.5.
However, maybe we could find some value in the player props market. More specifically, we can use PrizePicks, which allows you to parlay NFL player props together and wager real money on them in 27 different states.
Let’s dive into my two favorite PrizePicks plays for Thursday Night Football.
Jacoby Brissett
Over 9.5 Rushing Yards
Even without T.J. Watt, it’s reasonable to expect the Steelers will create Havoc in the Cleveland backfield. Cameron Heyward is still back there, and I’m sure Mike Tomlin will send Minkah Fitzpatrick on a few blitzes. Plus, the Cleveland offensive line has the third-highest adjusted sack rate through the first two weeks.
Sacks are often heavily influenced by your quarterback play, however. I’m sure that number would be lower with Deshaun Watson under center. Jacoby Brissett has actually been rather effective at passing from the pocket. He made some jaw-dropping plays against the Jets last week.
Jacoby Brissett, The Innovator #Brownspic.twitter.com/Dfjx4Ohhyf
— Browns Digest (@BrownsDigestFN) September 18, 2022
However, Brissett still picked up 43 rush yards against the Jets last week. He also reached double-digit rushing yards in Week 1 against Carolina, which has a comparable defensive front to Pittsburgh.
Brissett is more of a pure passer than a rusher, but I think we’ll see him innovate under pressure on Thursday night. All it takes is one or two scrambles around Heyward to cash this number, something I’m pretty positive will happen.
The projection systems believe it will happen, too. Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Brissett for 18.0 rush yards against Pittsburgh.
That gives us plenty of value to bet this number.
George Pickens
Under 2.5 Receptions
Despite Pittsburgh’s rookie wide receiver complaining about his lack of targets …
George Pickens said he was open “90%” of the time in the Steelers game against the Patriots.
He was targeted 3 times. pic.twitter.com/KR0JT7TFUg
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) September 21, 2022
… and Pittsburgh’s quarterback comments about targeting him more often:
Unleash George Pickens 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/lbnvLS2xuO
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) September 20, 2022
I’m not ready to believe that until I see it.
George Pickens has run 71 routes through two weeks and been targeted six times. Even Najee Harris picked up a 17.6% target share in Week 2 while Pickens stuck at 8% for the second straight week.
I think Pickens has a bright future. He has elite quickness off the line and has the frame (6-foot-3, 200 pounds) to hang as an outside receiver. But there are two issues for him.
First, Pickens isn’t great at the catch point. He’s a little young and can get outmuscled or outmaneuvered for 50/50 balls.
Second, Mitch Trubisky might just be that bad. He doesn’t throw a good deep ball and probably isn’t able to accurately target Pickens downfield. The rookie has basically moved Diontae Johnson into the slot, and Trubisky is hitting Johnson on those short routes instead of Pickens on the deep routes. Johnson has a team-high 32.4% target share as a result.
Plus, the Browns finished top-10 in the NFL in pass attempts per game allowed to wide receivers not characterized as No. 1 (Johnson) or No. 2 (Chase Claypool). That posits a tough matchup for Pickens.
Football Outsiders pre-season projections had Pickens averaging 1.75 receptions per game. Our Action Labs Player Props Tool has Pickens at 2.4 receptions for this game while Stokastic’s Player Props Tool has Pickens at 2.1.
Don’t believe the narrative. Bet the under.
