It’s going to be an ugly one on Thursday Night Football.
After imploding late in Week 2, the Cleveland Browns will look to rebound at home in an AFC North matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers. This game also opened with a total of 38.5, the lowest we’ve seen this season.
If you’re like me and looking for some entertainment in what should be a low-scoring, ground-and-pound game between two run-heavy offenses, then I’ve got that covered with a same-game parlay that has even better odds than last week’s grand-slam 23/1 parlay, which won on a backdoor cover and touchdown from Josh Palmer.
Let’s get into it.
Alternate Under 41.5 (-178)
This game could be one of the ugliest Thursday Night Football games of the season. With expected gusts of over 20 miles per hour, points should be at a premium. These are two run-heavy offenses with below-average quarterbacks that should struggle to score.
Through two weeks, the Steelers have scored 18.5 points per game, but that includes a pick six and great field position coming off of turnovers. T.J. Watt is out and although the Steelers defense should be able to limit Jacoby Brissett and Cleveland — like it did against Mac Jones and New England — I’d expect less pressure generated and fewer turnover-worthy plays.
On the other side, Cleveland faces its toughest defense of the season after facing the lowly Panthers and Jets. In their first two games, the Browns have ran the ball 76 times and thrown it 61 times.
A divisional matchup between two teams with little faith in their starting quarterbacks and gusts nearing 20-plus miles per hour? Take the under.
The trends also point toward a low-scoring game. Other than the fact that primetime unders are 6-1 to begin the year and it’s a short turnaround after a physical Sunday game for both squads, our very own Brandon Anderson wrote about these trends here:
- Mike Tomlin Road Unders: 70-50-1 (58%)
- Kevin Stefanski Unders with Total u44: 6-2 (75%)
- Mitch Trubisky Unders with Total u43: 16-5 (76%)
- Thursday Night Unders with Totals 37 to 40: 18-3-1 (86%)
It’ll be a gross one in Cleveland, so back the under in this AFC North divisional bout. To give a safety cushion on this under, because it’s so low and in a same-game parlay, buy it up to 41.5 as an alternate total. That clears us of the key number of 41.
Steelers +4.5 (-118)
Following the narrative that this will be a low-scoring affair between division rivals, taking the points with the Pittsburgh Steelers is an obvious addition to this same-game parlay.
I am not sure why this game isn’t closer to a coinflip. These are two below-average quarterbacks and the Steelers have the defensive edge, even without Watt.
Yes, the Browns have the two-headed monster of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, but I think that can benefit Steelers’ spread bettors in the long run. Possessions should be limited and the clock will be chewed. The Browns could have the lead late in the fourth and use the ground game to run out the clock. We saw what happened against the Jets, when the Browns took a 13-point lead instead of wasting clock.
I don’t think Cleveland makes that mistake again and will play more conservative if it has a late lead.
Tack on the fact that I don’t trust Brissett to continually convert on third-downs, and I’ll take Mike Tomlin and the Steelers as road underdogs.
As seen in our NFL Week 3 Betting Trends article, Tomlin is 48-26-4 ATS (64.9%) as an underdog and an even better 20-6-2 ATS (76.9%) as an underdog against a division rival.
Additionally, Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski is 1-11 ATS against the AFC North. Because of this low total and the trends pointing in Pittsburgh’s direction, take the points in a classic Tomlin rah-rah spot.
Harrison Bryant
Anytime TD (+600)
There’s a lot to love about Harrison Bryant, even as the TE2 in this Cleveland offense.
While David Njoku has the most snaps on the team and the higher route participation over Bryant, his targets per route run is just 11.5%. Meanwhile, Bryant’s targets per route run sits at 25%.
Despite playing 51.7% of snaps, Bryant has quickly become one of Brissett’s favorite targets, especially in the red zone. Bryant has run the most routes of any Cleveland receiver inside the 10-yard line (4). He is also tied for first on the team with two red-zone targets.
It is worth a sprinkle on both Njoku and Bryant scoring a touchdown at these odds. Obviously, it’s expected Chubb and Hunt will carry the lion’s share of the red-zone work, but Brissett has an affinity for his tight ends and I expect at least a few drop backs on Thursday night. That’ll favor the tight ends, especially with the Browns often running heavy-set formations.
Nothing is better than a long shot add to the parlay that makes the odds skyrocket and I think this number is far too long for Bryant, given his usage inside the 10-yard line.
FanDuel Quickslip: Harrison Bryant ATD
The FanDuel Parlay (+3999)
- Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 (-118)
- Alt Under 41.5
- Harrison Bryant Anytime TD (+600)
