Last week we got cute and broke from our script-building process, and it nipped us in the bud — we were right about Travis Kelce breaking out for a big game, but got burned by Darren Waller. For this edition of our Sunday Night Football single-game parlay, though, we return to our usual strategy as the Steelers and Chargers should be more predictable than the Chiefs.
As a reminder, our process is built on creating a script for the game. Then, we follow that script to build a parlay that optimizes our expected return. This will allow us to use PointsBet's $20 free bet for SNF in the most efficient manner.
Steelers vs. Chargers Odds
The last time the Steelers lost came way back on Oct. 3, when they faced the Packers. While that is a fun stat to throw around, it completely overlooks the atrocity that was the 16-16 tie against the Lions last week.
Fortunately, they get to face the Chargers, who have been crushed by run-first offenses all year — LA’s 4.8 rushing yards allowed per attempt is the most in the NFL. We saw the Patriots, Eagles and Vikings take advantage of the Chargers' rushing woes then gash them for big plays through the air. This should be exactly what the Steelers look to do given their depth of playmakers.
This didn't look as favorable of a matchup for the Chargers until Steelers team MVP T.J. Watt was ruled out. Watt has been a menace for the Steelers, racking up 12.5 of their 26 sacks this season. Without him, the only real threat up front is defensive tackle Cameron Heyward. However, the Chargers will be able to focus extra attention on Hayward given Watt’s absence.
This diminished front will likely be the worst the Chargers have played since their bye. This will be a good chance for Herbert to rebound after what may have been his worst game of the season.
One player Herbert will need to show up if he hopes to light it up tonight is Mike Williams. After having at least 75 yards and a touchdown in four of his first five games, Williams has fallen off a cliff recently. He has fewer than 60 receiving yards and fewer than five catches in each of the last four games.
The Steelers will also be missing their best cornerback, Joe Haden, this week. This will force them to shuffle some things around on the backend, creating a big opportunity for Williams.
Our script is a little different for this game because we are not focusing on figuring out how the game goes. Instead, we see that both teams are positioned to have offensive success.
With our script set, let’s dig into the parlay that plays on our expectations.
The Parlay (+807)
- Najee Harris to get 75+ Rushing Yards (-150)
- Mike Williams to get 50+ Receiving Yards (-180)
- LA Chargers -1.5 (-240)
- Race to 30 points – Neither (-150)
PointsBet Same-Game Parlay: Steelers vs. Chargers
Najee Harris To Get 75+ Rushing Yards (-150)
After a slow start to the year, Harris has found his groove in recent weeks. In four of his past five games, he's eclipsed this mark compared to zero times in his first four, and he now faces one of the NFL's worst run defenses. Add in that the Steelers will want to grind the clock to protect a shorthanded defense, and this has a big game for Harris written all over it.
If you feel like a risk-taker, I wouldn’t blame you for moving this up to 100+ yards.
Mike Williams To Get 50+ Receiving Yards (-180)
This was already fairly well broken down earlier. Mike Williams went from completely dominant to a non-factor from Week 5 to Week 6. The problem could be who he was facing though. In his recent four-game stretch, the Chargers played the Ravens, Patriots, Eagles, and Vikings. Three of those are well-coached defensively and schemed him out of the game. The Eagles are the only ones not as craftily coached but they had Darius Slay to shut down Williams.
This week the Steelers are well-coached, but they rely on their pressure to protect their backend. Without Watt that will be an issue. Pair a weakened front with missing their best defensive back, and you have a recipe for a mistake and a big play.
Chargers -1.5 (-240)
This pick comes down to believing in the Chargers, but after their last three games, still not trusting them too much — LA has played in only two games that were determined by more than one score.
Given that the Steelers are missing their best player and Ben Roethlisberger is coming off COVID, this should be the Chargers' game. However, they are not reliable enough to bet against the spread, and the moneyline didn’t provide enough to our odds. Just like Goldie Locks, I found 1.5 fit just right into our parlay, though.
Race To 30 Points: Neither (-150)
I know, I know, I have been talking about how these offenses are primed for success against each other. Even so, the Steelers will be grinding the ball on the ground to play keep away and milk the clock. There are a few teams that can run the ball for big plays, but the Steelers aren’t one. They have yet to break 30 points in a game this year, and I don’t think that changes tonight.
The Chargers, on the other hand, have two games in which they scored 30 points this year. Those games came against the Chiefs when they refused to settle for a field goal late and against the Browns when neither team decided to play defense. LA has played as a team that only looks to push the limits offensively when they are forced, and the Steelers' 25th ranked scoring attack will not push them. For reasons similar to why I took -1.5 instead of say -3 for LA, I am betting on them to keep the score low.
