This feels like an exciting matchup.
The Steelers are coming off a massive upset victory over the Bucs, while the Dolphins are getting their star quarterback back from a concussion.
If you’re out of ways to bet on this primetime matchup, I’d recommend checking out PrizePicks. The app allows you to parlay NFL player props for real money in 30 states, including ones where online betting access remains unavailable.
Let’s dive into my PrizePicks card for Sunday Night Football.
Steelers vs. Dolphins Props
This prop shouldn’t take much convincing.
First, it’s Mike Tomlin as a seven-point road underdog, so he’s planning on running the football.
Najee Harris gets the carries in this offense. He has a 73% rush attempt marketshare this season and no other player on the team has more than 15%. When the Steelers run the football, Harris gets the touch more times than not.
Harris has cashed over 12.5 attempts in 4-of-6 games and has yet to record a game in single digits. Dating back to last season, he’s hit over this number in 16-of-24 games.
Miami has a good rush defense, but I think it has taken a step back since the start of the season. The Dolphins allowed the Jets’ Breece Hall (18 carries, 12.5 line) and Michael Carter (10 carries, 8.5 line) to go over, as well as Joe Mixon in the week prior (24 carries, 17.5 line).
Harris is averaging almost 15 carries per game over the past five weeks. Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Harris’ rush attempts to be one of the biggest edges on the board for Week 7, marking him for over 14.
Pick: Over 12.5 Rush Attempts
WR Tyreek Hill, Dolphins
Over/Under 76.5 Receiving Yards
Tyreek Hill may be the most impactful offseason addition for any team. He’s been the top wide receiver in football through six weeks:
Hill has cashed over 76.5 receiving yards in 4-of-6 games this season, recording crooked numbers in three of those. And he’s accomplished this with three quarterbacks throwing him passes.
On Sunday Night Football, Hill has his starting quarterback throwing him passes again. Tua Tagovailoa’s injury status could also work in his favor, as Mike McDaniel might go with more quick hitters to Hill across the middle as Tua rounds back into form.
Pittsburgh’s defense is not as scary as it looks, specifically against opposing aerial attacks. The Steelers are 17th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the third most passing yards this season.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Hill for 78 receiving yards on Sunday Night, but Stokastic’s Player Props Tool marks him for over 90.
Either way, I think Hill has a great matchup and is in a good situation to pile up yards in primetime.
Pick: Over 76.5 Receiving Yards
