Tua Tagovailoa makes his return on Sunday Night Football as the Dolphins welcome rookie Kenny Pickett and the Steelers.
Miami enters as losers of three straight and look to jump back above .500 while the Steelers enter fresh off an upset of the Buccaneers as 10-point underdogs.
The Dolphins are 7.5-point favorites with a total hovering around 44.5. Can their offense revert back to its explosive ways under Tagovailoa, or will a Steelers secondary slowly returning to health provide enough for an upset on the road once again?
Here’s a same game parlay for the primetime event.
Pittsburgh
+7.5
A Mike Tomlin rah rah spot on the road as an underdog? Yes, please.
This number is way too long for the Steelers. Despite a depleted secondary, Pittsburgh pulled off an upset as double-digit underdogs against the Buccaneers.
Now the Steelers receive a gigantic boost with Minkah Fitzpatrick and Cam Sutton both returning from injury. Levi Wallace cleared concussion protocol as well, providing depth to what was a depleted secondary.
Quarterback Kenny Pickett also cleared concussion protocol and his presence gives Pittsburgh a better chance at keeping the game close.
This number has gotten too out of hand with Tua Tagovailoa’s return. Outside of Week 1 against New England, the Dolphins haven’t beaten a team by two scores. The Steelers are not great, but they’re not 7.5-point underdogs bad.
Plus, I’d be remiss not to mention the Brian Flores revenge game! The former Dolphins head coach is going to be fired up for this game and I expect the Steelers to rally behind him.
There’s too many question marks with Tagovailoa's impending return for me to back the Dolphins here, and given Tomlin’s 38-17-2 ATS record as an underdog from October on (69%), I think the Steelers fit the bill as the first add in this parlay.
Tomlin is also 24-8-1 ATS against an opponent with a better record.
George Pickens
Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
With Pickett back under center, George PIckens is a perfect complement to this parlay.
In what should be a negative game script, the Steelers will be passing against a horrid Miami secondary that ranks 29th in pass coverage, per PFF. Pickens has quickly solidified himself as a top option for Pickett and has averaged seven targets per game over the last four weeks.
Pickens is a big-play threat and can come close to this number with just one catch. In half of his games, he’s caught a ball for at least 27 yards as he enters with an aDOT of 15.5.
Since Pickett’s takeover as the starter, Pickens has finished with 200 yards over three games. And that’s with Mitch Trubisky starting against the Jets and also coming in for the injured Pickett last week.
Pickens only finished with 27 yards in Week 6, but it was a surprise win over the Buccaneers with a run-heavy approach. Tonight, however, Pittsburgh should be trailing late and will be forced to pass more.
This is the perfect bounce-back spot for the rookie receiver in what sets up to be one of his easiest matchups — assignment wise — this season.
Tyreek Hill
Anytime Touchdown (-115)
Tyreek Hill hasn’t found the end zone since Week 2, yet he enters with the shortest odds to score, and for good reason.
Hill has been a powerhouse when it comes to targets and yards in his first year with Miami. Tagovailoa is back in the fold so the Dolphins' offense should move the ball down the field more effectively and have plenty of scoring opportunities against a Steelers defense that ranks 17th in pass coverage, per PFF.
This season, Hill has 65 targets and 701 yards. He’s been targeted 12 or more times in 4-of-6 games and already has three performances of 160-plus yards. Yet his only touchdowns came against Baltimore in that 42-38 comeback win.
Having Tagovailoa back means more home run shots for Hill, who is arguably the best deep threat in the league.
It’s only a matter of time before the touchdowns come for Cheetah. He’s dealt with Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater for the last few weeks, but he finally gets his QB1 back.
Even though this is -115, this price is worth the add to the same game parlay.
The Parlay (+605)
- Pittsburgh Steelers +7.5 (-115)
- George Pickens Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Tyreek Hill Anytime TD (-115)
