Raiders vs. Steelers Odds Sunday Night Football (Week 3)
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 Even | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -120 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
Sunday Night Football gives us a rivalry game, so let’s break down the Raiders vs. Steelers odds, which have Las Vegas as three-point favorites at basically every sportsbook.
Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is an underdog legend — 52-28-3 (65%) against the spread (ATS) all time — but we've tracked a sharp action on the Raiders. How should you approach this rematch from Christmas Eve? In case you forgot, the Steelers mounted a late comeback to win 13-10 and covered as a two-point favorite.
Let’s preview Pittsburgh and Las Vegas — and focus on whether Kenny Pickett can get his act together — before making a Raiders vs. Steelers pick and prediction for Sunday Night Football.
Steelers vs. Raiders
Matchup Analysis
The Raiders are fresh off giving up 38 points to the Bills and have been a get-right spot for opposing offenses for the better part of two decades, failing to finish better than 20th in points allowed since the Bush Administration.
Despite having one of the NFL's premier pass rushers in Maxx Crosby, and using the seventh overall pick in this year's draft on edge rusher Tyree Wilson (who is listed as questionable with an illness), the Raiders are last in pressure rate through two weeks (10.5%).
With all of that said, the Steelers offense is a concern.
Since finishing the preseason with a perfect passer rating — leading the Steelers to five touchdowns in the five drives he played — reversion to the mean has been cruel to Kenny Pickett and company.
Through two weeks, the Steelers offense is last in Expected Points Added per Play (-0.33, per rbsdm.com), points per drive (0.80), red-zone trips (two) and PFF pass-blocking grade (25.2). If not for two defensive touchdowns on Monday against the Browns, they would also rank last in points per game, but as it stands, their mark of 16.5 PPG ranks 26th.
Facing two of the league's better defenses in the 49ers and Browns is a big factor, but Pickett hasn't helped the cause. He's last of 32 qualified passers in QBR (18.2). Of 26 quarterbacks who have at least 55 pass attempts, Pickett is the only one PFF has yet to chart with a big-time throw.
Bet Pittsburgh vs. Las Vegas at FanDuel
Most concerning, given that the Raiders defense often gives quarterbacks time in the pocket: Pickett is PFF's second-lowest graded passer from a clean pocket, behind only Zach Wilson. This continues a trend from last season, when Pickett was one of four quarterbacks among 35 qualifiers to finish with more interceptions (seven) than touchdown passes (five) from a clean pocket, joining the dubious ranks of Carson Wentz, Skylar Thompson and his backup, Mitch Trubisky.
In Week 16 of last season — a mere five games ago for both teams — a Raiders defense that finished 29th in DVOA held the Steelers to just 13 points, with seven of those points not coming until 46 seconds were left on the game clock in what was, ironically, a high point for Pickett, as he led the Steelers to a 13-10 comeback win after entering the fourth quarter down 10-3.
You know Mike Tomlin is itching for the Steelers to get back to their running game after averaging just 15.5 carries per game through two weeks, which is second fewest in the NFL and barely half of the 29.4 rushing attempts per game they averaged last season. But even that doesn't guarantee a cure — the Steelers are 27th in yards per carry (3.1) and 28th in offensive rushing DVOA (-38.2%, per FTN Fantasy).
Josh Jacobs has started slow with 28 carries for 46 yards (1.6 YPC), but the Raiders also figure to make their running game a priority against a Steelers defense that ranks ninth in net yards per pass attempt allowed (5.3), but last in yards per carry allowed (5.6).
The Steelers held the Raiders to 58 yards on 19 carries last season, but they are now without defensive tackle Cam Heyward (IR-groin), who was a monster in that matchup, notching three tackles for a loss — and two sacks for good measure.
Even without Heyward, the Steelers defense is still more than capable of making life difficult for Jimmy Garoppolo. Led by T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh leads the league in pressure rate (38.6%) and is fifth in sack rate (11.6%). Meanwhile, with Garoppolo under center, the Raiders are one of two teams yet to complete a pass play of at least 30 yards.
It's also worth noting that defensive coordinator Teryl Austin did a masterful job scheming to take away Davante Adams in last season's game, with the Steelers holding Adams to two catches for 15 yards on nine targets.
Steelers vs. Raiders
Betting Picks & Predictions
This matchup profiles as an under spot.
The Raiders are 29th in pace on offense and have yet to complete a pass longer than 23 yards. Defensively, they rank 11th in explosive pass rate allowed (9.3%) despite facing two quarterbacks who like to go downfield (Russell Wilson and Josh Allen).
The Steelers have a struggling young quarterback on the road, and he will be down one of his top targets in Diontae Johnson (hamstring; IR). Head coach Mike Tomlin is so focused on cultivating a tough, physical, defense-first identity that he has somehow forgotten to fire offensive Matt Canada for two seasons and counting.
Per our Action Labs data, Steelers road unders are 49-23-1 (68%) since 2014, beating the closing line by an average of 3.43 points per game.
The under is 4-2 in Pickett's six road starts, with the two teams combining to average 36.7 points per game and eclipsing 41 combined points only once.
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All data used in this article is from Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted.
