Our Christmas Eve football marathon ends with two teams whose seasons have not gone as hoped. So, we're going to play it safe with our Steelers vs Raiders player props and target two of the biggest names in the game.
I make these picks using Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon's projections in the Action Labs tool. I've had a successful season following the numbers, and most of the picks I make aren't written up.
For now, here are two I'm on for Saturday night. Merry Christmas!
Davante Adams
Over 5.5 Receptions (+125, PointsBet)
Raybon is projecting Adams for 5.7 catches on Saturday night while Koerner has him pegged for 5.5. We can get his over at plus money, though, so I’m backing one of the NFL’s premier pass catchers for plenty of volume.
Adams hasn’t cleared this line in his last two games, but he did in the five before that. It also isn’t for a lack of looks. Adams has gotten seven and nine targets in his last two games, though that pales in comparison to the 13.4 average he had in the previous five-game stretch.
Pittsburgh ranks 18th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric against the pass. The Steelers are also 20th against opposing No. 1 wide receivers.
Seven targets is Adams’ floor. He’s seen fewer looks just once this season, and that was in a shutout loss to the Saints. Assuming he sees his usual double-digit targets, which he has in eight of 14 games this season, Adams should clear 5.5. In those eight games, he’s gotten at least six catches seven times.
You can play it safe and get Adams’ receptionstotal at 4.5 on BetMGM, or you can grab the plus money at FanDuel or PointsBet on his over at 5.5.
Najee Harris
Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (FanDuel)
Through eight games this season, Harris looked like one of the biggest busts of the fantasy season. He was averaging just 3.34 yards per carry and was coming off a performance against the Eagles that saw him get just eight carries.
Then, the Steelers got their bye week, and we saw a new player. Before the bye, Harris averaged just 41.8 rushing yards per game. In his last six games, he’s up to 4.2 yards per carry and 71.5 rushing yards per game. He has five touchdowns and 429 total rushing yards in that span.
Harris’ receiving volume has gone down significantly in those last six games. He has just eight catches on 12 targets in that span, with four catches and six targets coming in one game, back in Week 11. One big reason for that is the Steelers have been winning, going 4-2, so there’s less need for Harris in the passing game. Also, Pittsburgh has the RB depth to have others focus on receiving.
This should be a matchup that sees Harris remain involved. While the Raiders rank 31st in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against the pass, they’re also just 22nd against the run. Pittsburgh will have its choice of how to attack a defense that, credit where credit’s due, has allowed an average of only 19.7 points per game in its last three contests.
In his last six games, Harris has gotten at least 17 carries four times. He’s gone over this total in all four of those games, as well. So, volume is the key.
Koerner is projecting Harris for 65 rushing yards, presenting a clear edge on his 58.5 total at FanDuel.
Pick: Najee Harris Over 58.5 Rushing Yards |
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