Steelers vs. Raiders Sunday Night Football sets up to be an ugly one with two struggling offenses squaring off in Las Vegas.
The Steelers are fortunate to be 1-1 after their defense carried the team to a win on Monday, and they now make a quick turnaround with a trip out west. The Raiders look to bounce back from a blowout loss to the Bills as each of these teams hopes to improve to 2-1 on the season.
The Raiders enter as field-goal favorites with a consensus total of 43.5.
Find my same game parlay (+618 odds) for Week 3 Sunday Night Football between the Steelers and Raiders below.
Under 43.5
This is going to be a run-heavy game where defense reigns supreme, mostly because both offenses have really struggled.
Despite preseason reports and high praise for Kenny Pickett, the Steelers offense has looked out of sorts — and that’s putting it nicely. PFF ranks the Steelers as the league’s worst offense. No Diontae Johnson leaves Pickett’s receiving options thin, and the offensive line couldn’t block a parked car in the first two games.
Pickett has been sacked seven times already, and he's been pressured on 41.7% of his drop backs. That's the highest Pressure Rate in the NFL, and the Jets are a distant second at 33.3%. PFF gives the Steelers’ pass blocking a grade of 25.1, and their run blocking is third-worst at 41.1.
Pittsburgh’s defense secured the Steelers' first win last week by opening the game with a pick-six and taking the lead late in the fourth quarter off of a scoop and score. The defense outscored the Steelers offense that, aside from George Pickens, is largely ineffective as Pittsburgh is dead last in DVOA.
The Raiders prefer a slower pace, and while Josh Jacobs is off to a brutal start through two weeks, Vegas likes to keep the ball in the reigning rushing leader’s hands.
The Las Vegas offense sits just seven spots higher than Pittsburgh's in DVOA and is 27th in seconds per snap. Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t the type to run the hurry-up offense, and I’m expecting this game to be much like the Raiders' 17-16 win in Week 1 over the Broncos.
Jakobi Meyers is expected to return, which should help Vegas move the ball more efficiently, but it’s hard to see Garoppolo finding much success against this dominant Steelers defense.
Life’s not too short to bet the under. If you want trends, I’ve got them, too. Since the 2016 season, Pittsburgh is 62.4% to the under when playing on Sundays, which is good for a 21.4% ROI. Per Evan Abrams, Mike Tomlin is the most profitable head coach to the under when playing on the road at 56%.
Hunter Renfrow Under 17.5 Receiving Yards
Hunter Renfrow was nearly cut in the offseason and didn’t receive a target in Week 1 in a healthy Raiders offense. Meyers’ return to the slot after missing Week 2 slides Renfrow down the depth chart.
Renfrow played just 13 snaps in Week 1, a number that doubled without Meyers the following week. However, Renfrow still played fewer snaps in Week 2 than Kristian Wilkerson and the duo of DeAndre Carter and Tre Tucker.
After Adams and Meyers, it’s a crowded receiving room and a below-average one at that. Renfrow had a 23-yard reception in Week 2 — on his only target — and I would expect minimal usage from the Clemson product.
George Picks Over 52.5 Receiving Yards
Everyone was wondering how George Pickens’ production would change without Diontae Johnson, and all he did was break free for a 71-yard touchdown. He was targeted 10 times, too.
Despite the low total for this game, Pickens’ receiving-yards prop remains too low because he is going to get 7-10 targets at a minimum each week. Not only is Pickens explosive, but he also excels at hauling in 50-50 balls against physical cornerbacks.
The Raiders secondary is a great matchup for Pickens, too. They are 29th in DVOA against a No. 1 receiver and around the league average for PFF Coverage Grade. Based on pure volume alone, this number is too low.
Tack on his Average Depth of Target (aDOT) of 12.4 and a staggering 2.09 yards per route run through two weeks, and Pickens should soar over this number as he continues to bud as the WR1 in this offense.
Steelers vs. Raiders Same Game Parlay (+618)
- Under 43
- Hunter Renfrow Under 17.5 Receiving Yards
- George Pickens Over 52.5 Receiving Yards
