As we looked through the Steelers vs Ravens odds board, our staff of betting analysts found two NFL player props and one bet on the side.
Check out our favorite Steelers vs Ravens picks for Sunday Night Football.
Ravens vs Steelers Picks
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John LanFranca: Since Week 8, the Ravens’ rush defense ranks first in the NFL, according to DVOA. On the season, they have only allowed 3.83 yards per carry to opposing ball carriers.
Since the addition of Roquan Smith, only two backs have cleared this number against Baltimore, and it took them 18 and 21 carries to hit the 60-yard mark.
Najee Harris has only rushed the football 18 times or more three times this season when Jaylen Warren has been healthy. In Week 14, Warren and Harris managed to combine for 15 carries total against this Ravens front for a measly 44 yards.
Harris is averaging only 3.7 yards per carry this season, and while he seemed to be gaining momentum over the past couple of months, it's worth noting he has only had 60-plus-rush yards against rushing defenses ranking 14th (Cincinnati), 18th (Carolina), 21st (New Orleans) and 23rd (Atlanta), according to rush defense DVOA over that span.
The Ravens are an entirely different animal than that group when it comes to stopping the run. Even if Harris gets the needed volume, he could still stay under this number.
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Matt Trebby: Freiermuth has gone over this total eight times in 14 games this season, and he’s projected for 3.9 receptions by Sean Koerner for Sunday Night Football.
The volume has been there all season for Freiermuth, regardless of whether it’s been Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett under center. Freiermuth is averaging 6.4 targets per game in his last nine appearances with Pickett under center. He’s at 4.4 receptions per game.
There was a startling trend of Freiermuth’s snap count being significantly down at either 55% or 56% from Weeks 13-15. He wasn’t even targeted in Week 15.
The second-year tight end bounced back last week, though, with seven receptions on eight targets. He also importantly played 81% of the snaps. All of that came in a game that saw just 23 points scored, a 13-10 win over the Raiders.
You can get Freiermuth’s receptions over at -125 over at BetMGM. I’d bet this one to -130.
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Brandon Anderson: We already got the best of this number and then some on last week's Lookahead, snagging Steelers +6.5 and under 42 well in advance. That total has dropped a full 6.5 points since, and the spread has dipped 4.5 points with Lamar Jackson out, giving us huge CLV.
If you tailed early, you can bet the other side now with Ravens -2 and over 35 — a juicy middle if that's your thing.
I still like the Steelers if you're coming in fresh. When Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh face off, it's just about always a good idea to back the underdog. Dogs in Tomlin vs. Harbaugh games are 21-5-3 ATS (81%), and Tomlin is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a division underdog from Week 14 forward, covering by over 12 PPG.
I'm not sure why the Steelers aren't favored at this point. Both teams are playing elite defense, but Baltimore hasn't found any offense under Tyler Huntley and the passing game has been particularly bad.
These are the top two run defenses in the NFL over the past six weeks, and Pittsburgh ranks top 13 both running and passing on both offense and defense during that stretch.
This certainly looks low scoring again, but the line is so low that it has robbed the value. Still, it's worth noting that 16 of the last 21 games (76%) with a total at 37 or fewer have gone under.
Expect this game to be exactly what you think — ugly, defensive, low scoring and close. Should be a black-and-blue Sunday night.
