We have a special treat on Saturday with an NFL doubleheader that will be capped by a classic AFC North rivalry. I have an NFL prop for both sides of Steelers vs. Ravens today.
Russell Wilson has struggled without his WR1 lately, while Justice Hill's production has decreased over the past couple of months. We're backing our expert's projections and positive regression for both on these overs.
Let's get into my Steelers vs. Ravens props and NFL picks.
Russell Wilson Over 213.5 Passing Yards (-120)
Sean Koerner has Wilson projected for 229.5 passing yards against the Ravens.
It can’t get much worse in this market for Wilson than the Steelers’ last two games. He threw for 158 and 128 yards agains the Browns and Eagles, respectively, and has struggled to get going without George Pickens.
Well, Pickens didn’t practice this week and has already been ruled out, so this bet is about the matchup.
The Ravens' front seven is one of the best in the NFL, and you’re not going to beat Baltimore by running the ball. Baltimore’s defense ranks fifth in Rush DVOA but 16th against the pass.
Wilson threw for 205 yards in the Steelers’ win over the Ravens earlier this season. The six-point spread indicates we should expect Baltimore to lead for most of this game, which would create a game script that will lead to Wilson going over this total.
Justice Hill Over 9.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Koerner has Justice Hill pegged for 15 rushing yards, which would require a bounce-back performance from recent struggles.
Hill has only gone over this total three times in the Ravens’ last nine games, during which he’s averaging 4.04 yards per carry. That total is that high because of two games against the Steelers and Chargers in which he had a combined six carries for 68 yards. Otherwise, it hasn’t been pretty, especially considering he averaged 4.9 yards per carry in the Ravens’ first five games of the season.
To hit the over, Hill likely needs three carries, something he has done in half of the Ravens’ games this season. The Steelers rank 12th in Rush DVOA, and he only needed two carries to get 13 yards when these teams met back in Week 11.
Hill has a role in this Ravens offense as the pass-catching back, and I’m backing Koerner’s data and some positive regression for Hill, as well.
