The Pittsburgh Steelers look to keep their playoff hopes alive as they head to Baltimore in an AFC North bout with the Ravens on Sunday night.
The Steelers enter fresh off a game-winning touchdown late on Christmas Eve over the Raiders and need to win out for any shot at the postseason. The Ravens, meanwhile, remain without Lamar Jackson but did clinch a playoff berth. They’ve won three of their last four games.
The Ravens are 1.5-point favorites and the game total sits at 35.5. This has a chance to get ugly, but that’s no surprise in a late-season tilt between two AFC North opponents.
Here’s a same-game parlay focusing on two players in this game:
George Pickens
Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
George Pickens is a big-play receiver who developed chemistry with Kenny Pickett early on. Since Week 4, when Pickett took the reins at quarterback, Pickens’ production has taken a huge step up.
When Pickett is under center, Pickens has gone over this current number in six of 10 games. Over the last four, he’s done it three times.
Pickett left the first game against Baltimore in Week 14 due to injury, but it didn’t stop Pickens from hauling in a 42-yard catch and finishing with 78 receiving yards. He’s solidified himself as the WR2 and runs nearly every route alongside Diontae Johnson.
The Ravens defense is about league average when it comes to coverage grade, per PFF, and they’re 31st in DVOA against the deep ball. That vulnerability is perfect for a deep threat like Pickens — 15 aDOT — who has recorded receptions of 25 yards or more in nine games this season.
While the number is right in line with our projections (37.8), the mean is a bit higher at 44 yards. Based on his high upside and ability to haul in deep shots, I like taking a chance with Pickens, who could hit this number in one catch.
Pickens should see upwards of five-plus targets and receive enough attention from Pickett to go over this number.
Mark Andrews
Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110) and Anytime TD (+270)
Mark Andrews’ production, or lack thereof, isn’t because of target share. He’s been the most-targeted receiver on the Ravens even with Tyler Huntley under center.
Our projections have the tight end at 43 receiving yards, with a mean of 48. That’s in line with the current number, but I think the market is too low on Andrews. While he’s not putting up the gaudy numbers like he did with Lamar Jackson, Andrews is the safety valve for Huntley and is often targeted upwards of seven times per game.
Why I love this prop tonight is it’s a perfect opportunity to buy low on Andrews. He hasn’t cleared this number in three straight — he was a half-yard shy last week — and caught just two passes for 17 yards against the Steelers in mid-December.
But Andrews averages 2.43 yards per route run against man defense — a number that dips to 1.63 vs zone — and that’s primarily what Pittsburgh’s defense runs. This is a great matchup for a bounce-back game.
The Steelers defense is also equipped to defend the run, which is Baltimore’s preference, more so than the pass. They’re eighth in rush DVOA, a number that drops to 18th when defending the pass.
If you aren’t convinced from my explanation on why Andrews should have a great day, you can check out “The Touchdown Show” as part of Action Network’s Power Hour, where Gilles Gallant and Nick Giffen broke down why they’re buying Andrews to score.
Also, for what it’s worth, all three of Huntley’s touchdown passes in his career have gone to Andrews.
The Parlay (+839)
- George Pickens Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Mark Andrews Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Mark Andrews Anytime TD Scorer (+270)
The Parlay: Pickens O38.5, Andrews O45.5 & Anytime TD |
