Seahawks vs. Steelers Odds, Picks, Predictions
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| Steelers -4.5 |
| Chase Claypool Over 63.5 Rec Yards |
| Najee Harris Over 74.5 Rush Yards |
| Geno Smith Over 17.5 Rush Yards |
Steelers -4.5
Chris Raybon: With Russell Wilson out, the Steelers have the edge on both sides of the ball (which I break down in further detail in my full betting preview).
A lot of things are going to have to go right for Seattle to keep this close, and I'd expect a repeat of last week, when Pittsburgh took a 24-6 lead over Denver before holding on for a 27-19 win. The market agrees, as the Steelers have moved from -3.5 to as high as -5 at some sportsbooks.
This is a good sign for the Steelers, as Ben Roethlisberger has covered the spread more than 70% of the time across a 32-game sample as a home favorite when the line moves in the Steelers' favor by at least one point (but no more than three), per our Action Labs data. I would bet this to -5.5 (shop real-time NFL odds here).
Chase Claypool Over 63.5 Rec Yards
Sean Koerner: Claypool has flashed massive upside over his first 20 career games, but he’s been fairly inconsistent when Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster have been healthy. Whenever either WR has missed time this season, though, Claypool has capitalized:
- Week 3 when Johnson was out: 9 catches, 96 yards, 0 TDs
- Week 5 when Smith-Schuster missed second half: 5 catches, 130 yards, 1 TD
Another encouraging sign for this prop was, once Smith-Schuster left last week's game after sustaining his season-ending injury, Claypool saw an increase in his slot usage. In Weeks 1-4, he lined up in the slot only 15% of the time. In Week 5, Claypool lined up in the slot 40% of the time, catching two targets for 77 yards and a touchdown.
I don’t think the market has adjusted Claypool's projection enough, especially against a Seattle defense that's allowed the second-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers. I’m projecting him for closer to 70.5 yards on Sunday night and would bet this up to 66.5 yards.
Najee Harris Over 74.5 Rush Yards
Michael Arinze: Have the Steelers turned the corner?
They snapped a three-loss streak at home against the Broncos in Week 5, when we saw a much more balanced approach in a game plan that didn't include Ben Roethlisberger slinging the ball more than 40 times. Instead, Big Ben threw the ball 25 times, and the Steelers combined for 35 rushes and 147 yards on the ground. That's a pretty good haul considering that teams haven't been as willing to run the ball on the Broncos — after all, they're sixth in allowing 85.4 rushing yards per game.
The Steelers will now face a Seahawks defense ranked 31st in both rushing attempts (32.4) and rushing yards (145.2) allowed.
Harris played a significant role in the Steelers' rushing attack against the Broncos, amassing 122 rushing yards on 23 carries after not carrying the ball more than 16 times in any of his previous four games.
Seattle seems like the perfect opponent for Pittsburgh to build on something positive from the last week. As a result, we should see the Steelers maintain their balanced approach against a Seahawks team that struggles to stop the run.
Unibet lists Harris' rushing yards prop at 74.5 — that number is too short, which makes the over worth a look in this spot. I would play it up to 78.5 yards.
Geno Smith Over 17.5 Rush Yards
Mike Randle: The entire Seahawks offense will change now that Smith is the starting quarterback. His accuracy and overall throwing ability is far below that of Wilson, so Smith will need to rely on his rushing ability to keep this game close.
The last time Smith has a starting quarterback was back in 2013 and 2014. In the 29 games his started, Smith averaged 20.8 rushing yards per game. In last week's 26-17 loss to the Rams, Smith tallied 23 rushing yards in less than a half of football.
Seattle enters this game with several injuries, including starting running back Chris Carson (out) and D.K. Metcalf (questionable). Wideout Tyler Lockett has also been battling through a hip injury over the past two weeks, so Smith is going to need to be the focal point of the offense, and his legs are his best weapon.
With Steelers a comfortable 5-point favorite, there is always the likelihood of negative game script providing even more scrambling opportunities for Smith. My colleague Sean Koerner projects Smith for exactly 20 rushing yards, 2.5 yards above this total, making this a 7-rated prop in our tool.
