Stefon Diggs, Dawson Knox and — curiously — Mike Gesicki represent the most popular NFL player prop bets for Sunday's Wild Card Round tilt between the Dolphins and Bills.
With Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa out, this game figures to be a complete mismatch, especially for Miami's offense. For Gesicki to be among the top three most popular prop bets begs the question: Is there any value there?
The Bills head into this matchup as the largest favorite during the Wild Card Round in history.
Our premier data analytics expert Nick Giffen assessed the value for these popular picks, which target the anytime touchdown marketplace.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
Dolphins vs. Bills Most Popular NFL Player Prop Bets
- Stefon Diggs to score a touchdown at anytime (+105)
- Mike Gesicki to score a touchdown at anytime (+425)
- Dawson Knox to score a touchdown at anytime (+210)
*Odds and data are according to PointsBet as of Saturday morning.
The most fair pick out of the bunch is on Knox to score an anytime touchdown, which he did last time out against the Patriots.
Knox to score a touchdown has a fair price of +207, according to Giffen. At PointsBet's price at +210, though, that's a roughly 0.3% edge.
But Knox's touchdown prop at FanDuel is key. There, you can get a +220 vig, good for over a 1% discount.
As per our suspicions, Gesicki's line at +425 is woefully undervalued. His fair value line is +861. You're losing almost 8% in edge there. So, you're paying an 8% premium on that line.
And at +105, PointsBet's price on Diggs to score a touchdown is the best in the market. His fair value line should be +117, but Buffalo throws the ball even when they're up big, looking to seal the game on big plays.
You'd pay a roughly 2% premium for that line, but it could be warranted if you're bullish on Buffalo's offense on Sunday afternoon.
