Road underdogs in games with low totals have performed historically well — especially during the first several weeks of the season.
For Sunday, Jaguars vs. Chargers and Texans vs. Bears fit the parameters we want out of this betting trend.
Both of these afternoon kickoffs have totals below 42, which constitutes a "low total." Jaguars vs. Chargers has a total of 41.5 at FanDuel while Texans vs. Bears touts a total of 39.5.
Since 2018, underdogs during games with totals lower than 42 are 89-56-4 ATS (61%).
During the first eight games of the regular season, those numbers climb to these a staggering 43-23-1 ATS (65%).
These figures align with the Jaguars' spread of +3.5, which is down from +10 earlier this week on account of Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert's impending absence.
And the Texans are +3 in what should be a dogfight against the Bears.
Jaguars vs. Chargers & Texans vs. Bears Pick
The Action Network has also developed a proprietary betting system that has reported a 62% win rate and a 21% ROI since 2005. The algorithm encompasses road underdogs with low totals.
If you had bet $100 on each game that has fit this particular betting algorithm, you'd be up about $8,210 — that's roughly $500 per year.
This algorithm has lit up for about 400 NFL games since 2005 and has gone 237-147-10 (62%) over that timeframe.
The betting system targets bets on small road underdogs that were horrible last season. A total of 50 or lower is also required.
The game needs to be played on Sunday or Monday in order to eliminate Thursday Night Football, which has more variance due to the short rest time.
"Horrible last season" means six wins or fewer. "Small road underdog" indicates the team's spread is between +0.5 and +6.5.
All of the parameters of this betting system fit the Jaguars and Texans' spread this afternoon.
Do keep in mind that these are betting trends — so they will only report profits over the long run. For instance, a pick under these parameters failed for the Steelers (+5.5, total of 38) vs. the Browns on Thursday Night Football.
Still, over the long run you're expected to win over 60% of the time.
