Cowboys–Vikings Odds, Picks, Predictions
| Pick |
|---|
| Vikings Spread |
| Vikings ML -130 |
| K.J. Osborn Over 2.5 Rec |
Vikings Spread
Stuckey: Betting the spread for this game will entirely depend on Dak Prescott's status come game time — I like the Vikings to cover regardless, but which number I bet them at will be dictated by whether Prescott suits up, or if he is inactive.
For you trend folks:
- Mike McCarthy is 13-4-1 against the spread (ATS) off bye since 2003 — the most profitable coach in the Action Labs database. Former long-time Dallas defensive assistant Mike Zimmer is 3-4 ATS off of a bye.
- Zimmer is 35-23-1 ATS at home (60.3%; 17.5% ROI) and 48-26-1 (64.9%) in non-division games (second most profitable — behind Belichick — since 2003).
If Prescott can go but has limited mobility, that could spell trouble for Dallas against this Minnesota pressure. When under pressure this season, Prescott has just a 70 QB Rating (18th) and 65.9% ADJ% (16th). Compare that to his numbers when kept clean where he's been nearly flawless: 15 TD, three INT, 126.6 rating, trailing only Russel Wilson and Aaron Rodgers.
But let's just ignore the Prescott injury for a second. I like this matchup for Minnesota, which shouldn't have too many issues moving the ball against this defense. I also think the Cowboys will have success moving the ball, especially on the ground as their offensive line should get a good push in the run-blocking department. However, where do Zimmer's defenses normally flourish? On third downs and in the red zone. That's what I believe this boils down to. In a game where both offenses have major edges, Minnesota will get one or two more stops on third down and/or force an extra field goal in the red zone.
And don't be surprised if we see some overdue Dallas turnover regression on Sunday night. Despite having the worse defense of the two, Dallas has twice as many turnovers as Minnesota on the season.
I believe the Vikings get this done at home in front of one of the better home crowds in the NFL in a game that could make or break their season. Whether Dallas wins this or Prescott plays, the Cowboys are still winning the NFC East. Give me primetime Kirk Cousins.
If Prescott is ruled in and he’s expected to start, the Cowboys should re-emerge as the favorites, in which case I would bet the Vikings to +1.
But if Prescott is ruled out, I would bet the Vikings to -3.
Check out my full break down of the game — and this pick — in my Sunday Night Football betting preview here.
Vikings -130
Michael Arinze: If you're reading between the tea leaves, there's a decent chance that Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott won't suit up to play on Sunday night. Prescott is nursing a calf injury, and despite a bye in Week 7, the two-time Pro Bowler was still a limited participant in practice this week.
The Cowboys view his status as a game-time decision, but they'd be running a considerable risk if he played and injured himself even further. While they'd want to keep their five-game winning streak alive, they do have a three-game lead in the NFC East division. This is a case where the risk certainly outweighs the reward.
As for the Vikings, they've won three of their last four games after starting the season 0-2. Minnesota has been much better than its record shows as it's ranked 12th overall in Football Outsiders' Total DVOA metric. However, I'd prefer to focus on its defense, which is sixth in defensive DVOA. Despite its rocky start, Minnesota is also 13th in allowing 22.8 points per game, and it's allowed 19 points over its last four games.
If I'm correct in assuming Prescott will be inactive, we could see Cooper Rush make his first NFL start. Rush has made only three pass attempts in the league, and that occurred back in 2017. As a result, we could see a heavy dose of the Cowboys rushing attack against a Minnesota team ranked 24th in run defense DVOA.
Dallas's defense is also good enough to keep Minnesota at bay, so it might make sense to eschew the point spread and just back the Vikings on the money line. I'd play the Vikings up to -138.
K.J. Osborn Over 2.5 Receptions
Mike Randle: K.J. Osborn has beat this prop in every game but one this season and has four games of six or more targets. With Dallas standout CB Trevon Diggs leading the league in interceptions, Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins will take the path of least resistance and avoid challenging Diggs.
The Vikings have show faith in Osborn, targeting him on huge third-down conversions late in the fourth quarter of multiple games. Osborn is a dynamic 24-year-old wideout with 4.48 speed that can get open in all three areas of the field. In a game with a high 52-point over/under, Osborn should see plenty of passing game opportunities.
We project Osborn for 3.5 receptions, one full reception above this total. This is a 7-rated prop on Sean Koerner's PlayerProp tool on FantasyLabs. I would bet this up to three full receptions.
