49ers vs. Broncos Odds
| 49ers Odds | -1.5 |
| Broncos Odds | +1.5 |
| Moneyline | -122 / +104 |
| Over/Under | 45 |
| Time | Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
| Odds via FanDuel. | |
NFL Picks
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Brandon Anderson: Sunday Night Football brings us two teams staring down the barrel of a very different season than the one they envisioned a few weeks ago.
The 49ers are missing Trey Lance and Elijah Mitchell and are stuck running Jimmy Garoppolo back with a worse roster. The Broncos have gotten very little offense from Russell Wilson and Co., while Nathaniel Hackett has made a barrage of mistakes that indicate he might not be ready for this job.
San Francisco’s defense has been outstanding, and that smells like trouble given how hard things have been for Denver’s impotent offense. Wilson has been terrific as an underdog and at home in primetime, but is this still the same guy we’ve become accustomed to? He can barely move, and he has to take some fault for all this disorganization too. Garoppolo did just fine last week, but Wilson’s offense is struggling.
I loved the 49ers as underdogs when the lines opened open, but apparently so did everyone else. The money flipped the line, but I still like them.
You may not like Jimmy G, but the numbers do: Garoppolo and Kyle Shanahan as anything shorter than three-point favorites are 13-3 ATS.
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Cody Goggin: The total for the Broncos and Niners game on Sunday Night Football seems like a number for two poor offensive teams, but that’s not the case here. Both Denver and San Francisco have offenses capable of moving the ball, and neither defense is the '85 Bears.
On the surface, it doesn’t appear the Russell Wilson era in Denver is working yet, but they have been productive on offense despite the scoreboard not showing that.
The Broncos lead the league in available yards gained through two weeks, mostly behind their absurd opening game against the Seahawks. Last week, Denver gained over 78% of its yards and would have been expected to score 30 points. The Broncos would have scored more than the 16 they did and likely won the game, if not for the two red zone fumbles and four attempted field goals.
Against Seattle last week, the 49ers had a similar experience. They gained 68.1% of their available yards and had 33 expected offensive points, even though starter Trey Lance got hurt in the middle of the game.
With Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, the 49ers have been one one of the most efficient offenses in the league over the last few years. Among quarterbacks with over 600 plays since 2019, Garoppolo ranks sixth in the league with 0.218 adjusted EPA per play.
Without Justin Simmons and with Patrick Surtain and many others questionable, this Denver defense is not in its best shape. This should lend to San Francisco being able to move the ball both through the air and on the ground.
These two teams have much more offensive talent than the current number shows. My projected total for this game is 49.4 points, so I would take this all the way up to 47.5 points.
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Sam Farley: It already feels like it’s been a long season for the 49ers with the injuries beginning to mount, both in the backfield and crucially at quarterback. The new contract for Jimmy Garoppolo now looks like a masterstroke.
The reintroduction of their former starting QB might not make them more dynamic, but we know how they play when they’re in charge and controlling the clock. On Sunday Night Football, San Francisco faces a Broncos team that looks shambolic through two weeks.
Last week at Mile High the atmosphere felt toxic, and things won’t get any easier for Nathaniel Hackett with the Niners in town. This is a powerful offense that we saw demolish the Seahawks, 27-7, while the Broncos offense hasn’t gotten motoring yet, scoring just 32 points so far this season.
Going back into the last season the 49ers are 6-1 against the spread in their past seven games and 4-0 in games following a victory. They’re a superior team across the board and have considerably better coaching. If the line remains under -3 points, then we shouldn’t doubt their ability to cover it.
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Simon Hunter: And just like that, everything has changed for the 49ers.
With Jimmy Garoppolo taking over as starting quarterback, we know exactly what we’re going to get from this team. Not only does San Francisco have a top-five offense in the NFC with Jimmy G., it has shown us that it might have one of the best defenses in the NFL.
I can really see this unit giving a Denver offense that struggled against Seattle and Houston some issues. Russell Wilson hasn’t been running as much as he did over the past couple seasons, but he’ll be running for his life against a 49ers front seven led by Nick Bosa.
I like the first-half play here since Kyle Shanahan tends to write the perfect game scripts to start games. I see him setting up Garoppolo to get off to a hot start after his first full week of practice back as the starter.
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Charlie DiSturco: For the last Broncos primetime matchup, I wrote a best bet advocating for Albert Okwuegbunam’s receiving yards over prop. I’m back, two weeks later, with the same exact play.
Do not be worried about the bagel he put up in Week 2 against the Texans. That game was a disaster from start to finish offensively.
Okwuegbunam is the fourth-most targeted Bronco and plays nearly 60 percent of the snaps. Courtland Sutton will continue to garner the majority of the looks, but that also opens up for Al O underneath.
Tack on both K.J. Hamler and Jerry Jeudy carrying injuries into Week 3, and we could see the Broncos rely more on their tight end. Even if they play, they’ll likely be limited in some capacity, and that’ll open up more opportunities for Al O to succeed.
Last season, as TE2 of the Broncos, Okwuegbunam hit over the current line of 23.5 in six of the 13 games he played. He’s now the clear No. 1 and should see more usage as Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett get more comfortable.
I expect the Broncos to make some changes to both play-calling and approach on Sunday night. There’s a clear issue, but I trust Wilson to turn things around. This number is just way too low for me not to jump on board.
For the second time in three weeks, we ride with big Al O. under the bright lights!
