At the halfway point of the 2018-19 NFL season, the Los Angeles Rams, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints look like the class of the league.
The oddsmakers agree. The Rams (+320) are the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl, followed by the Chiefs (+500), Patriots (+525) and Saints (+550).
No other team has better than +1200 odds to lift the Lombardi Trophy.
Each of these teams have won at least seven games, is in first place in the division and has point differentials of more than 60 points.
It is easy to say these elite teams will play for the Super Bowl, but given their short odds is there value placing a wager?
To find out, we compared our projections to current Super Bowl 53 futures.
For example: Los Angeles' odds of winning Super Bowl 53 are +320. For us to feel comfortable wagering on the Rams, they would need to win the championship 23.8% (which is 100/(100 +320)) of the time.
According to our simulations, Jared Goff & Co. have a 22.1% chance of winning it all, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +320 odds.
Based on the difference in implied probability and projected chance, these are three teams with value to win the Super Bowl.
Pro tip: shop around for the best line.
Kansas City Chiefs
- Current odds: +500, Implied Probability: 16.7%
- Chiefs win Super Bowl 18.7% of the time
If it wasn’t for a three-point loss to the Patriots in Week 6, the Chiefs would be undefeated and likely the Super Bowl favorites.
The defense has been a problem allowing an average of more than 25 points per game, but it hasn’t mattered with the offense putting up video game-like numbers.
Patrick Mahomes is the MVP favorite, the offense is averaging 36.3 points per game (1st) and is No. 1 in Football Outsiders' offensive DVOA.
They say defense wins championships, Andy Reid’s team is going to test that old adage.
New England Patriots
- Current odds: +525, Implied Probability: 16.0%
- Patriots win Super Bowl 16.1% of the time
Remember when the Patriots started the season 1-2? Me neither.
The Pats have rattled off six straight including wins over division leaders Kansas City and Chicago. New England is once again positioned to win the AFC East for the 15th time in 16 years.
The win against the Chiefs could act as a tiebreaker for determining which team gets home-field advantage in the AFC.
If the Patriots and Chiefs play a rematch with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, are you really going to bet against Brady and Belichick?
Many teams have started a season hot before faltering down the stretch. At the end of the season, the Patriots are going to be among the league’s best.
Chicago Bears
- Current odds: +4500, Implied Probability: 2.2 %
- Bears win Super Bowl 3.1% of the time
The Bears are a longshot with upside. Mitchell Trubisky has been inconsistent but has shown flashes of brilliance, like his six-touchdown performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4.
Khaili Mack looked like a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in September with five sacks, four forced fumbles and a pick-six. An ankle injury has kept him sidelined for the past two games.
If Trubisky’s play is closer to his performance against the Bucs and Mack is healthy, the Bears will be a dangerous team when the playoffs start.
