The long two-week wait is over. Super Bowl Sunday is finally here.
Whether you're a sharp or a square (a casual bettor who bets for fun), this is as good as it gets: partying with friends, good food, cold drinks, endless prop bets to get down on, and of course, placing your biggest and most important wager of the year.
In case you didn’t know, “sharps” (also known as wiseguys) are professional bettors with long track records of success.
They don’t bet games based on bias or gut instinct. Instead, they are 100% analytical and value-driven.
Wiseguys bet numbers, not teams. When they place big wagers on a game, they force bookmakers to move the lines.
By using the betting tools available at The Action Network and Sports Insights, we can track how sharps are affecting betting lines for every NFL game.
So what are the wiseguys betting on Super Bowl Sunday?
>> All odds as of 3:30 p.m. ET. on Saturday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time Super bowl odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Sharp Report: New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. ET | CBS
Over/Under Sharp Angle
Under (moved from 59 to 56)
When searching for sharp action, three of the most critical pieces of data to focus on are betting percentages, dollar percentages and line movement. By comparing all three side-by-side, you can gain key insight into where the public is betting, which side the professional money is on and not only how, but why the sportsbooks are moving the line.
The Super Bowl 53 over/under opened at an incredibly high 59. Currently 55% of bets are taking the over, which indicates moderate public support. However, the total has fallen all the way to 56.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn't fall if the majority of bets are on the over. After all, why would the oddsmakers drop the number to make it easier for public bettors to cash their over bet? Remember, if it looks too good to be true, chances are it is.
The total fell because 58% of dollars have come in on the under. This overload of smart money from respected players created big liability for the sportsbooks, forcing market wide reverse line movement that dropped the total down to 56.
According to our Bet Labs database, anytime a total has fallen at least 1-point in the NFL playoffs, the under has gone 39-27, producing a 59.1% win rate (data since 2003).
Spread Sharp Angle
Patriots (moved from a pick'em to -2.5)
One of the quickest ways to go bankrupt is betting against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Since 2003, the dynamic duo has gone 141-88 against the spread (61.6%). A $100 bettor would be down nearly $6,000 fading the greatest head coach and quarterback duo of all time.
The Patriots have reached such unprecedented greatness that wiseguys just can't bet against them even if they wanted to.
The Super Bowl 53 spread opened at a pick'em across the market. Typically, home teams are awarded 3-points for home-field advantage. With this game being played at a neutral site (Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta), the oddsmakers view this matchup as a true coin flip between two evenly matched teams.
Using our Sports Insights betting percentages, we've tracked 75% of spread bets and 73% of spread dollars on the Patriots. We've also noticed a pair of steam moves on the Pats. This heavy dose of Patriots action pushed New England from a pick'em to -2.5.
Wiseguys love to bet against the public. They know that more often than not, Average Joes lose and the house always wins. By going contrarian, they can take advantage of bias and capitalize on inflated lines and overpriced numbers.
However, pro bettors aren't stupid. If they happen to find themselves on the same side as the public, they won't lay off or go the other way just to be stubborn and spiteful.
In this case, the 75% of bets on New England and massive line movement toward the Pats is a clear indication that sharps and squares are on the same side.
An added bonus for pros and Joes sweating the Pats: following big line movement has been incredibly profitable in the playoffs. Since 2003, anytime a line moves at least 1-point in the postseason, the team it moves toward has gone 43-33 ATS (56.6%).
With the line off the key number of three and sportsbooks predicting a close game, some wiseguys might be bypassing the Patriots spread in favor of the moneyline.
Currently 62% of bets and 72% of dollars are taking the Patriots to win straight up, pushing their moneyline price from -125 to -137.
