As we begin the final week of the NFL season, there are going to be many factors to consider before bettors make wagers on Super Bowl 54. Coaching and quarterback trends, records given extra rest, betting percentages and line movement are all among them.
And weather should be too.
Wind can impact the passing and kicking games, which promotes a low-scoring environment. Historically, it has been profitable to bet the under when it is breezy outside.
Since 2003, NFL games with average wind speeds of 10 mph or greater have gone under 55.9% of the time according to Bet Labs. A $100 bettor following this simple strategy would have returned a profit of $7,604.
In windy playoff games during this time, the under has gone 25-15-2 (62.5%).
There's still plenty of time until Super Bowl 54 kicks off, but bettors should be preparing for the possibility that wind will come into play.
In fact, windy conditions are already being forecasted for the big game (6:30 p.m. ET, FOX). As of Monday morning, average wind speeds between 12 and 15 mph are expected in Miami on Sunday evening.
More than 80% of tickets are on the 49ers-Chiefs over. But should the forecast hold up as we approach Sunday, don't be surprised if that figure starts to come down, and more importantly, if the total — currently at 54/54.5 — comes down with it.
