We're back with our final live betting guide of the season. Super Bowl 57 between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles goes down tonight, with an expanded live-betting menu including live same-game parlays.
At this point in the season, our edges and analysis are going to be as sharp as they possibly can be. We can be pretty confident in how teams will play under various game scripts, with close to 20 games of data behind us.
We needed to be careful with first and second half splits, though. With both teams (by definition) being among the league's best, they've both spent the bulk of their games with second half leads. That naturally deflated their second half pace splits.
For that reason, we were leaning more heavily on game-script based analysis, as well as both offenses DVOA matchups against their opponents defense.
Here's how we live bet Chiefs vs Eagles in Super Bowl 57.
Super Bowl 57: The Live Bets We've Made in Chiefs vs Eagles
Player Props — LIVE BET MADE
From a player props and/or parlay standpoint, there were a couple things to keep in mind. One situation I was looking to target was Hurts rushing yardage overs with the Eagles trailing, or vice-versa.
Broadly speaking, we expect less rushing production from the trailing team, but the math changes with quarterbacks. Hurts should see the bulk of his rushing production on scrambles rather than designed runs, so the Eagles being up means he'll probably actually see fewer opportunities on the ground.
Of course and as always, player props were expertly handled during the extended version of "Bet What Happens Live! With Dr. Nick." Nick Giffen and Gilles Gallant went through all the prop markets using his live player projection models, and they came away with a couple bets.
Patrick Mahomes' apparent ankle injury late in the second quarter meant that most of the Chiefs QB's live player props were off the board, but at bet365, his live passing yardage total was still available. Dr. Nick and our colleague Gilles Gallant decided that a live under of 268.5 on Patrick Mahomes' passing total was the play.
On the other side, the "Bet What Happens Live!" crew did in fact hit a live under on Hurts' rushing yardage total of 99.5.
Overs in a Close Game — LIVE BET MADE
The "close game over" was the low-hanging live betting fruit of Chiefs vs Eagles in Super Bowl 57. Both teams play fast, generally speaking, ranking first and third in situation-neutral pace.
However, neither team picks things up very much when trailing. Part of that is neither team played with a big deficit often in 2022. Football Outsiders' pace splits categorizes all situations where a team is down by seven or more equally into one bucket, and much of our analysis is based off of that.
Yet clearly, a 14-point fourth quarter lead would influence play-calling more than a seven-point first quarter hole. It makes sense to keep that in mind, especially with these teams.
We wouldn't have been shocked to see a relatively cautious approach early from both offenses, followed by an explosion of late scoring. Instead, both offenses came on firing on all cylinders, driving the live total up to nearly 60 after just two drives, and things didn't slow down from there.
Late in the third quarter, though, we got our window of opportunity. With the Eagles kicking a field goal, this one remained within a touchdown. That's officially "close game" territory. A total of 61.5 means we just need two more touchdowns, which seems attainable given the offensive quality tonight. Over 61.5 is our final live bet of the season.
Pick: Live Overs in a Close Game |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Speaking of FanDuel, they're also now offering live, in-game same-game parlays. I put one together early in the second quarter, right before Jalen Hurts put the ball on the ground, leading to a Chiefs scoop-and-score and a 14-14 tie midway through the second quarter.
You can create a live #SameGameParlay for #SBLVII with @FDSportsbook@Psychoward586 is rolling with Eagles ML, under 59.5 points and Kenneth Gainwell any time TD 🦅 pic.twitter.com/xekEFjwJCs
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) February 13, 2023
As we discussed, an Eagles lead correlates with the under, thanks to their usually excellent ball control (whoops). We built this based on the assumption they would maintain that lead. Gainwell has been involved early out of the backfield, and the Eagles could try to get him back for the TD overturned in the first quarter.
The Other Super Bowl Live Bet We Were Watching For
Unders if the Eagles Control — LIVE BET CONSIDERED
From a pure pace-of-play standpoint, either team going up multiple scores should slow things down. The Chiefs going up big actually has a bigger impact than the Eagles, but we prefer unders if it's the Eagles up big.
There are a couple reasons for that. First is the Chiefs' aggressive nature even when playing with a lead. They led the league (by a wide margin) in pass rate over expectation and are likely continue to play aggressively even with a lead — especially in the Super Bowl.
That means a Chiefs lead should see both teams playing fairly aggressively.
On the other hand, Philadelphia is arguably the best NFL team at controlling the ball and clock from in front. They led the NFL in total game time spent leading, while trailing only San Francisco in time of possession with a lead this season.
Their defense is also well-equipped to slow down the Chiefs if Kansas City is forced to go pass-heavy. The Eagles had the best pass defense by DVOA this season while leading the league in sacks and adjusted sack rate. With Patrick Mahomes likely still limited from a mobility standpoint, the Eagles' front being able to pin their ears back and rush the quarterback would be bad news for the Chiefs.
Of course, we'll be looking for an inflated total before betting any unders. Our threshold for that number is much lower with an Eagles lead than a Chiefs one, but it's still worth considering if the Chiefs light things up from here.
We have the inflated total. Now, we just need one team to take control. Even better if it's Philly.
The Eagles had a 10 point lead and the total has risen to 64.5. That would push us towards the under — and I wouldn't begrudge anyone for playing it. However, the sharpest angle is to wait out the results of the Chiefs' opening drive of the second half. If they fail to score a touchdown, then we'll fire.
Pick: Live Unders if the Eagles Take Control |
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
