It's the most wonderful time of the football year! We have so many props to pick from, and there are still a lot of markets that haven't been released that I'll be interested in.
For now, I've found three props that I like early on in the market. I have two tackles props and a receptions under.
Let's get to my first Super Bowl picks.
Drue Tranquill Under 7.5 Tackles + Assists (+110)
Tranquill has only cleared this number in four of 18 (22%) games this season, but he has been trending upward by clearing it in two of the last three.
The Eagles are a good matchup for opposing linebackers to get tackles since they run the ball at such a high rate. Saquon Barkley, though, has a wider range of outcomes on his rush attempts as to which players will be in on his tackles.
However, that's still not enough for me to get Tranquill's projection up to about eight.
Tranquill isn't a linebacker who plays every snap, as he's typically in on about 75% of defensive snaps. Leo Chenel tends to check in for him on third downs. Considering the Eagles run the fifth-most plays in the NFL, that could mean a slight hit to Tranquill's playing time here.
Either way, I'm projecting Tranquill for closer to 7.2 tackles + assists with a 55% chance to stay under 7.5, but we are getting plus money here.
Noah Gray Under 1.5 Receptions (-125)
We've talked on our podcasts about how Noah Gray's playing time has taken a bit of a hit since Hollywood Brown made his Chiefs debut in Week 16. Gray was averaging a routes run rate around 45% before then, but it's gone down to 37% since Brown became a factor.
Gray's target rate has also taken a hit, going from 16% without Brown active to 9% since Week 16.
There are other factors that lead me toward this pick.
Patrick Mahomes is scrambling at a higher rate than usual, which is usually the case for him in the playoffs. Not only will that lead to fewer pass attempts, but Gray's targets typically aren't Mahomes' first read. That means if Mahomes is scrambling if his first couple reads aren't open, it's less likely for Gray to get a target.
The Eagles are also a run-heavy team that can bleed to clock and limit opponents' overall play volume. They've allowed the second-fewest plays per game in the NFL this season. A counting stat like receptions will be impacted by that more than yards.
Lastly, Gray could be due for some slight catch regression. He's caught 82% of targets this season, but his expected catch rate is closer to 76%, which is right around his career rate.
I'm projecting Gray for around a 61% chance of staying under 1.5 receptions.
Oren Burks Most Tackles + Assists (+320)
Burks has filled in for the injured Nakobe Dean. There was potential that Jeremiah Trotter Jr. would be mixed in, but Burks has averaged around a 95% snap rate in the Eagles' two games without Dean. I'd expect that to continue in the Super Bowl.
Zack Baun should be the clear favorite in this market, and he is at +175. I'm projecting him for 9.7 tackles with most sportsbooks offering his tackles prop at 10.5.
Burks shouldn't be too far behind, though, considering I'm projecting him for 9.2 tackles.
I think a lot of the value is coming from Tranquill being third on the board at +350. He has upside, but I'm showing he should be closer to +1200 in this market. Nick Bolton should be third around +450.
So, after running my simulation with all of the tackle projections, I have fair odds for Burks in this market at +250.
