"Bet numbers, not teams," is a piece of advice given frequently in the sports betting industry, and for good reason.
Sure, you make think the Chiefs are going to beat the Eagles in Super Bowl 59, but there's a huge difference between betting Kansas City -1.5 and -3.5.
The idea of focusing on numbers instead of teams goes further than just spreads, moneylines and over/unders — it also applies to player props that explode in popularity during the Super Bowl.
Expanding on this further, the NFL betting market is live, meaning odds, projections and value can fluctuate due to various factors, like new information, money flooding the market, sportsbook liability, etc.
Dallas Goedert's receiving yardage over/under Super Bowl 59 prop is a prime example.
Super Bowl 59 Player Prop Pick for Dallas Goedert
*Odds, projections as of Monday, Feb. 3
DraftKings opened this prop at Goedert over/under 45.5 receiving yards, which caught the eye of Action Network's very own Brandon Anderson, who was quick to pounce on the over shortly after this market posted.
Anderson apparently wasn't alone as Goedert's receiving yardage over is currently the most popular (in terms of the number of tickets) Super Bowl prop, according to BetMGM's John Ewing.
Sportsbooks may not like being too heavy on one side of a market and could react by moving the line to both stem to flow of action already coming in, and potentially attract money on the other side to lessen liability should that bet ultimately win, like Goedert going over his yardage total.
This is exactly the scenario for Super Bowl 59 as Goedert's over/under has rocketed to 51.5 receiving yards, a full six yards higher than its DraftKings opener.
So, what is a bettor late to the Geodert party to do?
Remember the importance of numbers, not teams or players, when we're referring to player props.
Yes, there was value on Goedert's over at 45.5 yards, but after the six-yard line move, that value has actually flipped to the under.
Action PRO's Super Bowl player prop projections, which are powered by Sean Koerner, set this line at 47 yards.
From a data-specific standpoint, playing the over early was smart. However, when compared to the current line of 51.5, it's now a savvier bet to buy back the under.
Therefore, it's fair to say the "sharp side" of this prop is both the over and the under.
How is that possible?
Remember, long-term winners bet numbers, not teams or players.
In fact, while it's not the biggest of Action PRO's Super Bowl player prop edges (all PRO tools, including Super Bowl prop projections, are available right now for $40 off the regular price), buying back Goedert's under at 51.1 (-107) at DraftKings does check in with a very bet-able 10.1% edge.
But from a higher level, if someone at your Super Bowl party thinks they're on the sharp side with Goedert's over while someone else is waxing poetic about being on the under, in reality, they both may be correct.
More Action PRO Super Bowl 59 Betting Content
- The Single-Largest Super Bowl Prop Edge
- First Hint of Smart Money Hits Super Bowl 59
- An Early +550 TD Edge Popping for Super Bowl 59
- A Surprising Super Bowl Player Prop Value Pick
