The Super Bowl is unlike any other event in sports. There are markets being offered that no other football game in the world has.
With that, I've found three Super Bowl props that you're going to have to do some digging to find. All three of my picks listed below are at DraftKings, and I explain where you can find those.
Let's get this shmoney!
Chiefs Under 8.5 Players To Catch a Pass (-165)
This prop can be found at DraftKings under “SB LIX Specials” and then “Receiving Specials.”
The Chiefs have had eight of fewer pass-catchers in 13 of Patrick Mahomes’ 18 (72.2%) starts this season. In Mahomes’ four Super Bowls, Kansas City has had eight, seven, eight and six players catch a pass.
The Eagles defense allows the sixth-lowest completion percentage (62.2%) and is tied for the third-most passes defensed (90).
Since 2002, 44 of 44 teams that have played in the Super Bowl have had eight or fewer pass catchers. No team has had nine players catch a pass since the 2001 Rams. Overall, only five of 116 teams to play in a Super Bowl have had nine players catch a pass.
I’d bet this to -230.
Chiefs Most First Downs (+105)
This prop can be found under “Game Props” and then "1st Down Props" after you click on the Chiefs vs. Eagles matchup.
Kansas City has had more first downs than its opponent in 12 of Mahomes’ 18 starts this season, and Philadelphia has done that in 12 of Jalen Hurts’ 18 starts.
The Eagles defense, though, is allowing 17.5 first downs per game and just 17.9 points. Philly’s defense has one of the lowest explosive play rates in the NFL, and the Eagles offense is more likely to get explosive plays.
Philadelphia has had fewer first downs than its opponent in two of its three playoff wins to reach the Super Bowl. It took a 55-23 win over the Commanders for the Eagles to finally win that battle.
I’d bet this to -125.
No Missed FG/PAT Kicks (+200)
This prop can be found at the bottom of the “D/ST Props” listed on the game page at DraftKings.
Harrison Butker has not missed a kick in his last six playoff games and also nine of his last 10. He’s 13-of-13 on extra points and 15-of-15 on field goals.
Jake Elliott, meanwhile, has struggled this season for the Eagles. He has missed a kick in 10 of 20 games he’s played in, but the splits offer reasons for optimism here.
Here’s how Elliott has fared kicking indoors compared to outdoors this season:
| Kick Type | Indoors | Outdoors |
|---|---|---|
| Extra Point | 9-of-9 | 43-of-47 |
| Field Goal | 5-of-6 | 25-of-34 |
Elliott’s misses in the playoffs have inflated this line. Also, if the Eagles don’t trust him on long kicks, they’ll likely just go for it on fourth down instead of attempting a lower-percentage field goal.
Odds here imply a one-in-three chance of this prop hitting, but I’m projecting a more than 37% chance of no kicks being missed at the Super Bowl.
