For each week of the NFL season, I break down the NFL anytime touchdown market for every game. I identify the players you should consider betting on and whether the anytime TD odds are worth the investment.
For one final time this season, I'm here to break down the NFL anytime touchdown scorers market for Super Bowl 59, featuring the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.
Below is my Super Bowl anytime TD scorer analysis on 11 players who will be suiting up on Super Bowl Sunday at the Caesars Superdome.
Super Bowl Touchdown Scorers
Saquon Barkley Anytime TD (-190)
The price tag of -190 is hefty but it’s that price for a reason.
Saquon Barkley has been a TD machine in the postseason and is coming off a three-touchdown performance against the Commanders.
You’d probably be better served betting on multiple TDs or the First TD for Barkley — but this is the Super Bowl, so those odds have already been steamed.
Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (-115)
Jalen Hurts was the favorite to score a TD when the Eagles played the Chiefs in the Super Bowl two years ago and he makes a strong case to be the favorite again over Barkley.
The Eagles offense is quite predictable but also super efficient in short-distance conversions, with Hurts ranking fifth in the NFL in red-zone carries inside the 5-yard line.
When the Eagles get into the red zone, Hurts will see carries and his 2 TD prop (+600) is in play after he also rushed for three TDs against the Commanders.
Patrick Mahomes Anytime TD (+400)
Your guess is as good as mine when it comes to Patrick Mahomes.
The annoying part when betting Mahomes TD props is we know how slithery he can be on third down, extending plays with his legs. Why it’s annoying is he’ll go multiple games with very few scrambles and then play a high-profile matchup — like against the Bills in the AFC Championship game — and rush for two scores.
What’s wild is he closed at +550 to score in that game and he is now facing an even tougher run defense in the Eagles yet his odds have dropped to +400. This is not consistent with how sportsbooks tend to price Mahomes — because he’s coming off a two-TD game, you’re buying high that he goes for it again.
He may do that, but just because it's the Super Bowl doesn’t mean we need to completely ignore price and odds. Unless he’s priced at +550 or better, I’d pass on Mahomes.
Travis Kelce Anytime TD (+145)
No one will deny that in the postseason, Travis Kelce raises his game. He scored a TD against the Texans in the Divisional Round and while he was limited against the Bills in the AFC Championship Game, he still has enough playoff pedigree to warrant betting action.
The Eagles were quite good at limiting TEs during the regular season (third in defensive DVOA vs. TEs) but with two TDs allowed to TEs vs. the Rams and Zach Ertz going for 11 catches and 104 yards, it makes sense why bettors would look to Kelce in this spot.
I’d prefer to bet Taylor Swift’s boyfriend for an Anytime TD in the first half (+425) and try to get boosted odds. Of his last 10 TDs scored in the postseason, eight of them were caught in the first half.
Dallas Goedert Anytime TD (+350)
Arguably my favorite TD bet of Super Bowl LIX, I love Dallas Goedert as an end-zone threat for the Eagles. He’s averaged over 90% of snaps in each playoff game and has fared well against man coverage, which the Chiefs use quite a bit.
It also is encouraging that if the Eagles do get into a passing script and rely less on the run game, they can try to exploit the Chiefs' awful defense vs. tight ends.
Kansas City ranked bottom five in targets, catches and yards allowed to TEs during the season with five TDs allowed.
Kareem Hunt (+150) & Isiah Pacheco (+360)
