We have betting analysts on both sides of the spread with our Super Bowl best bets, although one side seems to be more confident. We have three bettors on the Chiefs side (including a big alt line), compared to one on San Francisco.
Check out our bets and breakdowns below for our against the spread picks.
Super Bowl Best Bets: Experts' Favorite Against the Spread Picks
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
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By Simon Hunter
At the end of the day, it’s been very profitable taking Patrick Mahomes at anything less than a -2.5 favorite (he's 17-3 against that spread for his career), and you may have heard that he's 10-1 as an underdog. It’s hard to pass on this number.
I can see this being a close game and once it gets to the fourth quarter, the 49ers will make mistakes. Unless Mahomes is playing hurt, we back him as an underdog with Andy Reid as his coach and Steve Spagnuolo manning the defense.
I'd take the alternate spread of Chiefs -2.5 at +130 if you like to party.
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Super Bowl Best Bets: Our Favorite Player Props
By Ricky Henne
There are two names that pop out for why I like the Chiefs to (at least) cover in Super Bowl LVIII. The first is to be expected, but the second is a bit off the wall — though he's vital to the team’s success.
The No. 1 reason I'm backing Kansas City is Patrick Mahomes. You’ve probably read ad nauseam over the past two weeks about how he gives the Chiefs a strong chance to cover, especially with his prowess as an underdog.
So, instead I’ll focus on someone who won’t take a single snap — Steve Spagnuolo.
The Chiefs’ defensive coordinator has had his unit humming all year. Kansas City ranks second in points per game (17.3) and yards (289.8), third in sacks (57) and seventh in total DVOA. However, it’s his playoff prowess that really pops out as he’s cooked up some of the best defensive performances we’ve seen in playoff history. Just ask Tom Brady.
Spagnuolo is special in the postseason and is on the verge of becoming the most successful coordinator of all time. A win on Sunday would make him the first four-time Super Bowl-winning coordinator (on any side of the ball). That type of success is no accident, which is why I think his blitz-heavy scheme will have the edge over Brock Purdy, who is the league’s best quarterback in the face of pressure.
Kansas City blitzed almost as much as any team in the league and sent an extra man 37% of the time. However, that hasn’t been a problem for the 49ers. Purdy has been incredible when blitzed, completing 70% of his passes for a league-best 10.5 yards per attempt. He's also thrown 15 touchdowns and just two interceptions against the blitz.
Still, Purdy has looked shaky this postseason. So, in a battle of a blitz-heavy defense against an efficient offense facing extra pressure, I’m backing the man who’s cooked up some iconic playoff game plans.
Pick: Chiefs +2.5 (-115)
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The wrong team is favored in the Super Bowl.
Patrick Mahomes is No. 1 all time in the postseason in passer rating, yards per game, winning percentage, completion percentage and touchdown-to-interception ratio. With that said, he isn't the reason I'm picking the Chiefs.
The Chiefs have the better defense in just about any metric you look at, and if they get the lead, their defense has proven to be nearly impenetrable in the second half of games. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan won't be able to consistently stick with the running game when trailing by one or two possessions. Once he hands the keys over to Brock Purdy, it won't be pretty.
The Chiefs defense is on another level compared to the 49ers' last two opponents — the Lions and Packers. The 49ers defense is vastly overrated and the Lions moved the ball against them at will. If not for a lost fumble and a couple of dropped passes, Detroit would have comfortably beaten the 49ers.
I don't expect the Niners defense to get many stops early in this game. Once they fall behind, it will be too late. Eventually, Purdy will make a mistake and the Chiefs defense will secure a rather easy victory.
I'd play this alt line down to +230.
Pick: Chiefs -6.5 (+255)
San Francisco has been the better team all season and Kyle Shanahan has built the more reliable offense.
Whether it’s rushing or passing, the 49ers are much more explosive and efficient offensively. All credit goes to defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo for shutting down Baltimore and to Patrick Mahomes for carrying the Chiefs' laborious offense in these playoffs, but it’s time for Shanahan to get his deserved Super Bowl.
The 49ers will hit a few more explosives, they’ll lock down defensively in the red zone and win a close game that features plenty of long drives.
My way-too-specific prediction: San Francisco will be up four and driving late to ice the game, but will come to a fourth-and-medium decision. Shanahan will opt to kick the relatively long field goal, which will be missed by Jake Moody, opening the door for Mahomes to engineer the winning touchdown drive.
Much like the Chiefs have struggled to score in the second half all season, though, he’ll come up short.
Pick: 49ers -2 (-110)
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