One game left: The Super Bowl.
Tom Brady. Patrick Mahomes.
Inevitable.
The football gods have been merciful.
Although I’m not a trends bettor, I find that using our Action Labs database helps me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games.
Let’s take a look at some trends for the early spreads and totals for Packers-Buccaneers and Chiefs-Bills.
All lines are from our NFL Odds page.
Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
Chiefs (-3.5) vs. Buccaneers
Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. ET on Feb. 7 | TV: CBS
When the Chiefs and Buccaneers played in Week 12 at Raymond James Stadium, the Chiefs won by only three points, but they very much controlled the game.
In the first quarter, they sprinted to a 17-0 lead. At the start of the fourth quarter, they were ahead 27-10. Mahomes was a delicious 462-3-0 passing for the Chiefs while Brady was a good-but-not-great 345-3-2 passing.
In a vacuum, I think the Chiefs are more than three points better the Bucs, and I'm not dissuaded by the fact that the Bucs are playing this game in Tampa Bay.
Home-field advantage doesn't mean as much this year as it usually does, and the fans at the Super Bowl tend not to be the diehards.
Plus, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has been dominant on the road, where he is an A-graded 40-22-1 ATS (26.8% ROI).
Similarly, Mahomes is 15-8-1 ATS (28% ROI) on the road.
Finally, as good as Brady has been throughout his career, bettors who have gone against him in the Conference Championships and Super Bowls since 2003 (as far back as our database goes) are 12-9 ATS (10.9% ROI).
This line has opened at -3.5, and I think it will move toward the Bucs from there, so I’m putting some action on the Chiefs now in case I’m wrong, but I’m also planning to bet more on them later if the line hits -3.
- Action: Chiefs -3.5 (-105) at DraftKings
- Limit: Chiefs -4.5 (-110)
Matthew Freedman is 1,004-797-37 (55.7%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
