Eagles vs Chiefs Odds
Super Bowl Spread Pick
As you would expect in a game with such a short spread, both teams have a number of things working in their favor.
The case for the Chiefs:
- Better quarterback
- Better coach
- Better punter
- Prior Super Bowl experience
- Mahomes is 18-6-1 ATS as a dog/pick'em/favorite of -3 or less
The case for the Eagles:
- Better O-line
- Better run game
- Advantage in pass-catcher matchups on offense
- Better pass rush
- Better secondary
- More margin for error on both sides of the ball
- More likely to benefit from officials
- 15-1 SU with Hurts as starter
- The line opened at Chiefs -2 and is now Eagles -1.5, a move of 3.5 points. The line has moved at least 1.5 points 18 times in Super Bowl history, and the team it moves towards is 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS.
I don't show a massive edge, but I do think the Eagles are more likely to win and this would lean toward that side inside the key number of 3.
The total is dicier. While referee Carl Cheffers' games tend to go under, this is still an indoor matchup between two top-three offenses. Game script could also play a major role.
If the Chiefs are able to score first, they will be more likely to stay with the running game, which could shorten the game. That could allow the more conservative Reid — the more likely of the two coaches to settle for a field goal– to dictate the game.
If the Eagles are able to get a lead, Reid is more likely to abandon the run. And if the Eagles go up big, they have no incentive to take their foot of the gas in the second half like they've done for most of the year. The Chiefs have been held below 20 points just once this year and is more likely to mount a comeback than anyone else the Eagles have faced.
Pick: Eagles -1.5 | Bet to -2.5 |
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Super Bowl Player Props
Quez Watkins
Under 1.5 Receptions (-133 at Caesars; Bet to -170)
After hammering Watkins’ yardage unders the past two games, I’m going with the under on his receptions this time around.
As I’ve mentioned in the past, the key here is Watkins’ lowered usage rate with Dallas Goedert is active. In the five games Goedert missed, Watkins was used much more as a traditional slot receiver, with a 7.8 aDOT and a 19.2% target rate per route, but with Goedert active, Watkins is used primarily as a field stretcher, averaging a 12.2 aDOT but a target rate of only 8.7% per route. As a result, his splits with vs. without Goedert are night and day:
Without Goedert: 4.8 targets, 3.6 receptions, 75.0% catch rate
With Goedert: 1.9 targets, 1.1 receptions, 57.7% catch rate
Another reason to like the under is that Watkins has seen his snaps cut this postseason, even early in games when the Eagles were still throwing. His route participation rates in the two playoff games were 27% and 52%, which represent his two lowest marks of the season. His 40% route participation rate this postseason is significantly down from his regular-season average of 64%.
Watkins’ median reception total in games Goedert has been active is 0.5, and he has caught one or fewer passes in 64.3% of those games.
Pick: Quez Watkins Under 1.5 Receptions (-178) |
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Jerick McKinnon
Under 5.5 Rushing Attempts (-120; Bet to -155)
McKinnon has carried five or fewer times in 12 of 19 games this season, including four of his past five. The lone exception in the last five games was the Chiefs first playoff game where he carried 11 times for 25 yards. He was promptly reduced to four carries the following week.
McKinnon has been abysmal as a runner as of late, averaging just 1.8 yards per carry since Week 16, so there’s no reason to expect a sudden uptick again. That will especially be the case with Isiah Pacheco averaging more than five yards per carry over that span and Clyde Edwards-Helaire also back in the fold.
Pick: Jerick McKinnon Under 5.5 Rush Attempts (-125) |
Jerick McKinnon
Under 9.5 Longest Rush (-124, Unibet — Bet to 9.5 at -170 or 8.5 at -119)
Save for an epic 26-yard, walk-off touchdown against the Texans in Week 15, McKinnon has done a whole lot of nothing as a runner this season. Since that score, McKinnon has carried the rock 24 times for 43 scoreless yards, with a long rush of seven. On the season, just five of his 88 carries (5.7%) have resulted in a gain of 10 or more yards.
McKinnon’s paltry 1.8 yards per carry over the past five games looks even worse when considering Isiah Pacheco posted a 5.2 YPC on 53 carries over that span.
After leading the Chiefs backfield with 34 carries for 150 yards (4.4 YPC) last postseason, McKinnon was given a season-high 11 carries in a bid to recapture that magic in the first playoff game this year against the Jaguars, but produced just 25 yards. That experiment lasted all of one game, with him returning to his season-long median of four carries in the AFC Championship game against the Bengals.
Given his current rate of explosive rushes (or lack thereof), McKinnon would need upwards of eight carries – a mark he’s reached in only four of 19 games (21%) – before he would project for a 50% or greater probability of breaking a run of 10-plus yards.
McKinnon’s longest rush has been under 10 yards in 15 of 19 games (79%) and under eight yards in 14 of 19 (74%).
James Bradberry Tackles + Assists
Under 3.5 (-215; Bet to -443) | Under 2.5 (Bet to -124)
Bradberry has posted fewer than four combined tackles plus assists in 16 of 19 games (84.2%). In fact, he’s posted two or fewer more than half the time (11 of 19 games, or 57.9%).
Much of that stems from his excellence in coverage. Bradberry has allowed just 44 completions on 94 targets this season (46.0%), which equates to a catch every 16.5 snaps in coverage. His 49 tackles plus assists closely mirror those numbers.
With Tyreek Hill no longer in Kansas City, the Chiefs don’t have a wide receiver that can consistently beat Bradberry, so his tackle opportunities should once again be scarce.
Pick: James Bradberry Under 3.5 Tackles + Assists (-215) |
Super Bowl Game Props
Opening Kickoff to Be a Touchback (-168; Bet to -200)
Eagles kicker Jake Elliott has produced a touchback on 68 of 104 kickoffs (65.3%) and Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker has done so on 50 of 80 (62.5%). Those numbers sell their true probability of a touchback short, however, as both kickers play their home games outdoors.
If we look only at indoor/retractable roof stadiums, Elliott has boomed a touchback on 22 of 23 opportunities (95.7%) and Butker has gone 15-of-18 (83.3%).
Pick: Opening Kickoff To Be a Touchback — Yes (-168) |
