The stage is set. Following their respective conference championships, it'll be the Buccaneers and Chiefs facing off in Super Bowl 55.
Now it's time to ask some questions.
Which teams tend to cover the spread in the Super Bowl? Do favorites outperform underdogs? Do overs outperform unders? Perhaps most pertinent to this matchup: Does quarterback age play a role in determining betting outcomes?
Below you'll find the trends that answer those questions, as well as some Super Bowl betting trivia, and the full list of all-time Super Bowl betting results dating back to the very first matchup between the Chiefs and Packers (click here to jump to the list).
Let's get into it.
Note: You'll notice some trends — the more basic ones — refer to the all-time sample, whereas others, especially those relating to betting-market activity, are only based on the results in our Action Labs database (which dates back to the 2003 season).
Super Bowl Betting Trends
Favorites vs. Underdogs
Favorites have gone 28-24-2 (53.8%) all-time against the spread, and 36-18 straight-up. They're only 10-7 straight-up in our Action Labs database (since SB XXXVIII), though, meaning moneyline underdogs have won 4.2 units over that span.
Overs vs. Unders
Overs have gone 27-26 (50.9%) all-time.
AFC vs. NFC
NFC teams have gone 27-25 (51.9%) against the spread all-time.
Popular vs. Unpopular Sides
Popular sides (teams getting more than 50% of spread tickets) have gone 10-7 (58.8%) against the spread in our Action Labs database.
Line Movement
Teams toward which the line moves (ex. -1 to -1.5, +6 to +5.5) have gone 10-5 (66.7%) against the spread in our Action Labs database.
Better vs. Worse Win Percentages
Teams with worse win percentages (including playoffs) have gone 13-1 (92.9%) against the spread in our Action Labs database.
Better vs. Worse ATS Percentages
Teams with worse against-the-spread win percentages (including playoffs) have gone 9-7 (56.3%) against the spread in our Action Labs database.
Older QBs vs. Younger QBs
Older starting quarterbacks have gone 9-8 (52.9%) against the spread in our Action Labs database.
Super Bowl Betting Trivia
Largest spread in a Super Bowl …
-18 (Twice: Colts over Jets in SB III, lost outright, 16-7. 49ers over Chargers in SB XXIX, won and covered, 49-26.)
Highest total in a Super Bowl …
57 (Patriots defeated Falcons, 34-28, in SB LI.)
Lowest total in a Super Bowl …
33 (Three times: Dolphins defeated Vikings, 14-7, in SB VII. Steelers defeated Vikings, 24-7, in SB VIII. Steelers defeated Cowboys, 16-6, in SB IX.)
Biggest upset in a Super Bowl (by point spread) …
+18: Jets defeated Colts in SB III.
Team with most Super Bowl ATS wins …
Steelers (5)
Team with most Super Bowl ATS losses …
Patriots (6)
Number of Super Bowls to end in a push …
2 (Packers def. Patriots, 35-21, in SB XXXI, Rams def. Titans, 23-16, in SB XXXIV.)
Tom Brady's ATS Record in Super Bowls …
4-5. This will be just the second time Brady is an underdog in the Super Bowl. The other time? The Patriots beat the Rams as a 14-point underdog in Super Bowl XXXVI.
All-Time Spread and Over/Under Results
| Matchup (O/U) | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|
| LIV: Chiefs -2 vs. 49ers (53) | KC, 31-20 | Favorite/Under |
| LIII: Patriots -2.5 vs. Rams (56) | NE, 13-3 | Favorite/Under |
| LII: Patriots -4 vs. Eagles (49.5) | PHI, 41-33 | Underdog/Over |
| LI: Patriots -3 vs. Falcons (57) | NE, 34-28 | Favorite/Over |
| 50: Panthers -5 vs. Broncos (43.5) | DEN, 24-10 | Underdog/Under |
| XLIX: Seahawks -1 vs. Patriots (47.5) | NE, 28-24 | Underdog/Over |
| XLVIII: Broncos -2.5 vs. Seahawks (47.5) | SEA, 43-8 | Underdog/Over |
| XLVII: 49ers -4.5 vs. Ravens (47.5) | BAL, 34-31 | Underdog/Over |
| XLVI: Patriots -3 vs. Giants (53) | NYG, 21-17 | Underdog/Under |
| XLV: Packers -3 vs. Steelers (45) | GB, 31-25 | Favorite/Over |
| XLIII: Steelers -6.5 vs. Cardinals (46.5) | PIT, 27-23 | Underdog/Over |
| XLIV: Colts -4.5 vs. Saints (56.5) | NO, 31-17 | Underdog/Under |
| XLII: Patriots -12.5 vs. Giants (54.5) | NYG, 17-14 | Underdog/Under |
| XLI: Colts -6 vs. Bears (47) | IND, 29-17 | Favorite/Under |
| XL: Steelers -4 vs. Seahawks (47) | PIT, 21-10 | Favorite/Under |
| XXXIX: Patriots -7 vs. Eagles (47) | NE, 24-21 | Underdog/Under |
| XXXVIII: Patriots -7 vs. Panthers (38) | NE, 32-29 | Underdog/Over |
| XXXVII: Raiders -3.5 vs. Buccaneers (44) | TB, 48-21 | Underdog/Over |
| XXXVI: Rams -14 vs. Patriots (53) | NE, 20-17 | Underdog/Under |
| XXXV: Ravens -3 vs. Giants (33.5) | BAL, 34-7 | Favorite/Over |
| XXXIV: Rams -7 vs. Titans (48) | STL, 23-16 | Push/Under |
| XXXIII: Broncos -7.5 vs. Falcons (51.5) | DEN, 34-19 | Favorite/Over |
| XXXII: Packers -11.5 vs. Broncos (49) | DEN, 31-24 | Underdog/Over |
| XXXI: Packers -14 vs. Patriots (49) | GB, 35-21 | Push/Over |
| XXX: Cowboys -13.5 vs. Steelers (52) | DAL, 27-17 | Underdog/Under |
| XXIX: 49ers -18 vs. Chargers (54) | SF, 49-26 | Favorite/Over |
| XXVIII: Cowboys -10.5 vs. Bills (50.5) | DAL, 30-13 | Favorite/Under |
| XXVII: Cowboys -6 vs. Bills (45) | DAL, 52-17 | Favorite/Over |
| XXVI: Redskins -7.5 vs. Bills (49) | WAS, 37-24 | Favorite/Over |
| XXV: Bills -6.5 vs. Giants (40.5) | NYG, 20-19 | Underdog/Under |
| XXIV: 49ers -11.5 vs. Broncos (47) | SF, 55-10 | Favorite/Over |
| XXIII: 49ers -7 vs. Bengals (47.5) | SF, 20-16 | Underdog/Under |
| XXII: Broncos -3 vs. Redskins (47) | WAS, 42-10 | Underdog/Over |
| XXI: Giants -8.5 vs. Broncos (40.5) | NYG, 39-20 | Favorite/Over |
| XX: Bears -10 vs. Patriots (37) | CHI, 46-10 | Favorite/Over |
| XIX: 49ers -3.5 vs. Dolphins (53.5) | SF, 38-16 | Favorite/Over |
| XVIII: Redskins -3 vs. Raiders (48) | LAR, 38-9 | Underdog/Under |
| XVII: Dolphins -3 vs. Redskins (36.5) | WAS, 27-17 | Underdog/Over |
| XVI: 49ers -1 vs. Bengals (48) | SF, 26-21 | Favorite/Under |
| XV: Eagles -3 vs. Raiders (37.5) | OAK, 27-10 | Underdog/Under |
| XIV: Steelers -10.5 vs. Rams (36) | PIT, 31-19 | Favorite/Over |
| XIII: Steelers -3.5 vs. Cowboys (37) | PIT, 35-31 | Favorite/Over |
| XII: Cowboys -6 vs. Broncos (39) | DAL, 27-10 | Favorite/Under |
| XI: Raiders -4 vs. Vikings (38) | OAK, 32-14 | Favorite/Over |
| X: Steelers -7 vs. Cowboys (36) | PIT, 21-17 | Underdog/Over |
| IX: Steelers -3 vs. Vikings (33) | PIT, 16-6 | Favorite/Under |
| VIII: Dolphins -6.5 vs. Vikings (33) | MIA, 24-7 | Favorite/Under |
| VII: Dolphins -1 vs. Redskins (33) | MIA, 14-7 | Favorite/Under |
| VI: Cowboys -6 vs. Dolphins (34) | DAL, 24-3 | Favorite/Under |
| V: Colts -2.5 vs. Cowboys (36) | BAL, 16-13 | Favorite/Under |
| IV: Vikings -12 vs. Chiefs (39) | KC, 23-7 | Underdog/Under |
| III: Colts -18 vs. Jets (40) | NYJ, 16-7 | Underdog/Under |
| II: Packers -13.5 vs. Raiders (43) | GB, 33-14 | Favorite/Over |
| I: Packers -14 vs. Chiefs (N/A) | GB, 35-10 | Favorite |
Table data via SportsOddsHistory.
