For our last NFL game of the season, our staff has gotten creative with a pair of Super Bowl long shot bets. Sean Koerner's isn't an official pick, but he does like the value on a Chiefs backup tight end. Simon Hunter, meanwhile, is all over Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Check out the 9-1 and 7-1 bets that our experts are recommending for Super Bowl 58.
Super Bowl Long Shot Bets
Sean Koerner: I want to make it clear that this is not an official bet of mine, but it's my favorite long shot as of Sunday morning.
Gray is is Travis Kelce’s backup, but he gets more playing time than your typical No. 2 tight end, especially in the red zone. The Chiefs use sets with two or three tight ends at a top-five rate in the NFL.
Of the Chiefs' six red-zone touchdowns in the playoffs, Gray has been on the field for five of them (I went in and analyzed all six of them). While he didn’t see a target on any of them, he was close to drawing a target. One of them was a 19-yard pass to Kelce that saw Gray run a post into the end zone while Kelce ran a go route. It looked like Patrick Mahomes was watching to see if safety Marcus Williams would drift towards Kelce. If he did, Mahomes was likely going to throw it to Gray.
Another red-zone TD the Chiefs dialed up was a three-yard score for Kelce against the Bills. The Chiefs lined up all three tight ends on the left side and threw a screen to Kelce.
Andy Reid could use a similar play here and add a wrinkle that gets the ball to Gray. He’s been pretty close to getting an end-zone target in the playoffs and is offering some value at 9-1 since I’m projecting him closer to 7-1.
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Simon Hunter: I go through these sportsbooks and don't understand this market. Kelce is above Valdes-Scantling! That's not his game. He'll have a safety on him with someone helping over the top.
MVS, though, will see a lot of solo coverage and one-on-one matchup. He's had a 32-yard reception in each of the Chiefs' last two playoff games.
Reid is going to call a play for Valdes-Scantling. He's proven to be a big-play option the last two games, in which those 32-yards receptions were enough to be the Chiefs' longest passing play.
In this market, give me the guy who keeps getting looks down the field. He isn't the name that others other, so we're getting better value.
