Super Bowl Most Valuable Prop Bets: Christian McCaffrey, Isiah Pacheco, Elijah Mitchell

Super Bowl Most Valuable Prop Bets: Christian McCaffrey, Isiah Pacheco, Elijah Mitchell article feature image
Credit:

Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images. Pictured: Isiah Pacheco.

Super Bowl 49ers vs. Chiefs Most Popular Prop Bets

49ers Logo
Sunday, Feb. 11
6:30 p.m. ET
CBS
Chiefs Logo
49ers Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-2
-110
47
-110o / -110u
-130
Chiefs Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+2
-110
47
-110o / -110u
+110
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.
bet365 Logo

The Action Network's proprietary betting algorithms have targeted three top selections for Super Bowl LVIII between the 49ers and Chiefs.

The betting models are all three running backs that figure to play a big part in tonight's game: 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey, Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco and 49ers running back Elijah Mitchell.

We also have the public's favorite picks for this matchup. Our algorithms for the Super Bowl are developed by our predictive analytics team, which make empirical predictions on every game with value and have created popular benchmark statistics like the Luck Rankings.

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49ers vs. Chiefs Most Valuable Prop Bets

  1. Elijah Mitchell to record over 0.5 receiving yards (+525)
  2. Isiah Pacheco to rush 16 or more times (-105)
  3. Christian McCaffrey to rush 18 or fewer times (+105)
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49ers vs. Chiefs

Where's The Value?

The models simulate thousands of iterations of this particular matchups — with roster adjustments, injuries and other quantitative and qualitative factors in mind — and project an average figure for each player's props.

Mitchell, for instance, is projected to record on average at least one receiving yard through thousands of simulations of this game. That gives his prop at +525 roughly a 30% expected value, according to our internal algorithms.

In the long run, if you bet on these sorts of bets, you should return 30 cents on every dollar wagered over the long run. That market-best line is at Caesars.

Meanwhile, the two rushing attempt props involve the two starting running backs. Our models are more bullish that Pacheco will get more touches than the market expects, projecting him at 17.2 touches on average tonight on a 15.5 rush attempt total.

McCaffrey is projected at 17.8 rushes on an 18.5, plus-money total.

Both market-best lines are at DraftKings.

About the Author
Avery Yang is an editor at the Action Network who focuses on breaking news across the sports world and betting algorithms that try to predict eventual outcomes. He is also Darren Rovell's editor. Avery is a recent graduate from Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism. He has written for the Washington Post, the Associated Press, Sports Illustrated, (the old) Deadspin, MLB.com and others.

Follow Avery Yang @avery_yang on Twitter/X.

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