Super Bowl LVIIChiefs vs. Eagles here, and we've already got you covered on side, totals, analysis and so much more. But there's one award that will be decided off the field by a panel of voters on Sunday.
So, let's break down that's Super Bowl MVP odds.
Newly minted MVP Patrick Mahomes is the betting favorite, but no MVP has gone on to win the Super Bowl in this century.
Still, we're on a heater after nailing Mahomes (+900) in the preseason and Cooper Kupp (+800) for last year's Super Bowl MVP — let's go for the trifecta.
First, here is what you need to know about Super Bowl MVP based on the past 56 Super Bowls.
1. It’s a quarterback league, and Super Bowl MVP is a QB award.
QBs have won 31 times in 56 Super Bowls. That’s 55.4% and even more common lately at 11 of the last 16 Super Bowls — a 69% hit rate on the league’s most important position. The quarterbacks are favored for a reason.
2. That leaves 26 non-QB MVPs, including co-defensive MVPs in 1977.
Among non-QB winners were seven running backs, nine wide receivers and 10 defensive players. The 10 defenders include three linemen, four linebackers, two safeties and a cornerback. We've never had a tight end winner — yet. If a quarterback doesn’t win, this is wide open.
3. The Super Bowl MVP will come from the winning team.
Cowboys Hall of Fame LB Chuck Howley won in a losing effort in Super Bowl V, but voters are now instructed to choose from the winning side.
4. How is Super Bowl MVP chosen?
Largely by 16 media members. Those 16 writers and broadcasters comprise 80% of the vote, so each one is worth 5% of the total. The remaining 20% comes from a fan tally. That means just 11 media members comprise a voting majority.
Now that we know who typically wins, what would it take for any one of 11 key players on the Chiefs or Eagles to take home the trophy on Super Bowl Sunday? Let’s rank the candidates in tiers from most to least likely and make a betting verdict on each.
Tier I – The Clear Favorite
1. Patrick Mahomes (+130 FanDuel)
Mahomes is a slight favorite at most books, essentially a co-favorite with Jalen Hurts, but he's all alone in my top tier as a clear-cut favorite.
As I mentioned earlier, no regular-season MVP has gone on to win Super Bowl MVP this century, but it used to happen more often. When Kurt Warner won both MVP and Super Bowl MVP in 1999, he was the eighth player to do so in 34 Super Bowls. Last century, there was a 24% chance the MVP would also win Super Bowl MVP, almost one in four.
It makes sense, right?
MVP is a narrative and numbers award, and Mahomes just won the biggest award in football on Thursday night for having the best stats and story all year. Everyone already agrees he's the most valuable player in football, so if that's the case and the Chiefs win it all, wouldn't everyone give Mahomes the lion's share of the credit again?
It's tough to imagine a winning Chiefs scenario without a terrific Mahomes stat line — it's not like Kansas City is going to win 13-6 — so the numbers will be there. Fresh off an MVP and the face of football winning it all to take the GOAT mantle while playing on a bum ankle? You can check the narrative box, too.
Mahomes would be an overwhelming MVP favorite if the Chiefs win the Super Bowl — perhaps as high as 80 or 90% likely. The question is whether his ticket is worth the price of admission, even if that's the case.
The Chiefs are +105 on the moneyline, an implied 48.7%. Mahomes is +130 to win MVP, an implied 43.5%. Do the math, and Mahomes has to win MVP a whopping 89% of all Chiefs victories to make this worth playing more than a simple Kansas City ML bet.
The math just isn't in our favor. History says otherwise, too, since four regular-season MVPs won the Super Bowl last century but didn't win Super Bowl MVP. That means just 8-of-12 MVPs who won the Super Bowl also won MVP. That's 67% — pretty good, but nowhere near the 89% we need to bet this.
Football is a team game and if the Chiefs win, it'll have to be because at least a few other guys had big games, which would be just enough to put MVP in doubt.
Verdict: I'd put Mahomes around 40% to win, nearly double any other player and a heavy favorite comparatively — but I can't bet him at this number. You're better off just playing the Chiefs ML.
Pick: Chiefs Moneyline |
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Tier II – The Worst Super Bowl MVP Bet You Can Make
2. Jalen Hurts (+140 BetMGM)
Mahomes may be a slightly -EV bet, but Jalen Hurts is the single worst Super Bowl MVP wager you can make.
It's a quarterback's award, but that doesn't mean only a QB can win.
Based on the posted props, Hurts is projected for around 239 passing yards, 10 rushes for 49 yards and two touchdowns. Does that look like a MVP line to you? It doesn't pop for me, especially since I think those numbers are high.
I project Hurts closer to 200 passing yards with 40 on the ground. He's thrown for only 275 yards in two playoff games combined, and he's thrown only two TDs his last four games. Hurts had two or fewer TDs — counting rushing — in nine of his 17 games this year, over half of them.
Go though Philadelphia's schedule game by game. I only see five performances where Hurts would've been MVP — just 26% of Philly's games — and he's not even a lock in a couple of those.
Philadelphia is a Super Bowl favorite because of its depth and advantages all over the field, not because of Hurts. The whole reason the Eagles are here is because Hurts is less valuable than Mahomes, because he has so much more help in the run game, at receiver, on the line and on defense.
Don't forget: Hurts' numbers have been down since returning from injury and there's speculation that he's still not 100%. And if you think the Chiefs force Hurts to try to beat them and that implies big numbers, I'd argue that the higher his numbers are, the less likely Philly is to win the game — and you have to win to be MVP.
The Eagles are -120 on the moneyline and Hurts is +140 to win MVP. That math means Hurts would have to win Super Bowl MVP in over 76% of all Eagles wins to be worth the ticket. Personally, I'd put him around 40% or lower, making this by far the worst bet on the board.
At FanDuel, you can actually bet Field vs. Hurts at -170 for MVP. That's one of my favorite bets on the board.
Verdict: Hurts is the second-most likely MVP because he's a QB, but he's a terrible bet at this number. This is the worst bet you can make.
Tier III – The Betting Sweet Spot
3. DeVonta Smith (+3300 FanDuel)
If Hurts is a terrible MVP bet but the Eagles are favored to win the Super Bowl, there must be some incredible Philly value further down the board, right?
Indeed there is. DeVonta Smith is my most likely non-QB MVP and my favorite pick on the board. Naturally, he's one of my Super Bowl best bets.
Smith has quietly become Philadelphia's go-to receiver down the stretch. Before that 49ers game, where the Eagles barely had to bother passing, Smith had at least 61 yards in seven consecutive games, averaging 6.4 catches for 92.6 yards with five TDs during that stretch.
The Chiefs defense ranks 31st in DVOA against WR1s, and that might be Smith now. He plays nearly every snap and has seen his playmaking and YPC go up greatly down the stretch. He also lines up mostly on the right, where the Chiefs are 26th in DVOA, versus 6th on the left, where A.J. Brown typically plays. Smith has also scored all but one of his touchdowns against man coverage this season — Kansas City plays the eighth-most man coverage.
I've been backing Smith all playoffs. On the Action Network Podcast, I recommended him at +7500 before the Giants game, then at +5000 heading into the NFC Championship. He's still my favorite play on the board.
I have Smith winning MVP in about 15% of all Eagles victories — and I like Philly to win — so my numbers would make Smith around +1000 and a clear third favorite. He's almost twice the price of A.J. Brown despite outproducing him down the stretch. Oh, and two of the last four Super Bowl MVPs have been wide receivers.
Verdict: Smith is the one bet you have to make to win Super Bowl MVP and by far the best value on the board.
Pick: DeVonta Smith Super Bowl MVP |
4. Miles Sanders (+2500 FanDuel)
I have these next three Eagles about equal odds to win, but I increasingly like Miles Sanders' chances at a big game. If you think the Eagles roll on the ground and win convincingly, he might be your bet.
The Eagles are first in rushing DVOA, EPA and explosive run plays while the Chiefs are last in ESPN's run-stop metric. The best defense against Kansas City might just be long, sustained running drives by the Eagles and continued handoffs to Sanders and the other RBs while Mahomes watches on the sideline.
Sanders had three games this year with at least 134 rushing yards and two scores, and he would've been a MVP candidate in all three. He scored twice against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game, and Philadelphia led the league in rushing TDs. His snap count has been down slightly down the stretch, but maybe Philly was just saving him for the biggest game.
Verdict: Sanders is a boom-or-bust pick, but if he scores multiple TDs and cracks 100 yards on the ground, he could be the first Super Bowl MVP running back since Terrell Davis in 1998.
Pick: Miles Sanders MVP |
5. A.J. Brown (+1800 FanDuel)
Brown was Philly's star addition over the offseason and he's the biggest name among Eagles playmakers. That helps with narrative, but it also explains why his number is much shorter than his teammates even though his chances of a big game aren't necessarily much better.
Maybe Brown is still the WR1 ahead of Smith, set to take advantage of a young Chiefs secondary that won't have the physicality to match up. Brown has had a couple MVP games this season — eight catches for 119 yards and two scores against his former team, and six receptions for 156 yards and three scores against the in-state Steelers.
Brown is talented enough to take over any game and he had at least 85 receiving yards in over half of Philly's regular-season games. Maybe the postseason swoon is just small sample size theater and it's been Brown all along.
Verdict: Brown has the talent, but it's tough to play him at +1800 when Smith is just as dangerous and pays out +3100.
6. Haason Reddick (+4000 Circa)
You could argue Haason Reddick has been the Eagles' postseason MVP. He has 3.5 sacks, including a strip sack that knocked Brock Purdy out of the NFC Championship and essentially sent Philly to the Super Bowl.
Reddick has had an incredible season. He's up to 19.5 sacks including the playoffs, and he has at least one sack in eight of his last 10 games. He's the only player other than Nick Bosa to receive multiple first-place Defensive Player of the Year votes, and he leads a fearsome pass rush that had the top sack rate of any team this century.
Defenders can win this award, with 10-of-57 winners (17.5%) coming on defense. Reddick had multiple sacks in four of his last six games and led the league in forced fumbles, and he can change the game in an instant if he gets past Kansas City's beatable tackles and gets to Mahomes.
For years, the NBA Finals MVP either went to LeBron James or the guy defending him. If Reddick leads a unit that shuts down Mahomes and has a couple sacks along the way, he can absolutely win.
Verdict: Reddick is my second-favorite bet on the board behind Smith. I'm playing several Reddick sack props, and I'll play half a unit on MVP, as well.
Pick: Haason Reddick MVP |
7. Travis Kelce (+1600 FanDuel)
Kelce has the shortest odds among non-quarterbacks, but he's overpriced because Mahomes is such a huge threat. Unless Kelce runs one in, every score is also a Mahomes score.
Could Kelce put up 12 catches for 130 yards and two TDs? No one would be even a little surprised. But Mahomes probably finishes that game with at least 290 yards and three touchdowns, maybe leading the game-winning drive and throwing that winning score. Even with a huge Kelce game, doesn't Mahomes still win MVP?
One thing in Kelce's corner is his name. Because his brother Jason plays for the Eagles, the Kelce vs. Kelce narrative is such an obvious storyline that Travis could get a narrative push. He'll certainly need it to beat Mahomes.
Verdict: Not worth the price. If you expect a monster Kelce game, just play some alternate overs instead so you don't have to contend with Mahomes.
Tier IV – Four Long Shots Worth Considering
8. Josh Sweat (+20000 DraftKings)
If you want to put a couple bucks on a true off-the-boards long shot, I like Philly's Josh Sweat, the edge rusher opposite Reddick. Sweat has 12.5 sacks this season, including at least 1.5 in five of his last seven games, and he had a pick-6 in one of those games, too.
Sweat isn't a flashy name, but you never know who will make the big defensive plays. Sweat is a better price than Brandon Graham despite playing more snaps. Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson led the league with six interceptions and could be another Eagles defensive long shot.
Verdict: Josh is worth a Sweat, just in case.
9. Isiah Pacheco (+7000 FanDuel)
We only have two Chiefs in our top eight since Mahomes is such a heavy favorite, so let's finish with a few Chiefs long shots.
Pacheco will touch the ball more than any non-Mahomes Chief. He should get double-digit carries against a beatable run defense, plus he returns kicks and played a career-high snap rate last game with a career-best five catches. Pacheco could threaten 20 touches and crack 100 all-purpose yards. Throw in a couple scores and we could be in business.
The only problem? The last time the Chiefs won the Super Bowl, Damien Williams ran 17 times for 104 yards, added 4/29 receiving, and scored twice while Mahomes threw two interceptions … and won MVP anyway.
Verdict: The touches will be there, and Pacheco has game-breaking speed. He should get more touches if Kansas City is ahead. Not a terrible Chiefs sleeper.
Pick: Isiah Pacheco MVP |
10. JuJu Smith-Schuster (+9500 PointsBet)
Smith-Schuster isn't a lock to play, but he looks like the best Chiefs wideout bet if he does suit up because he's such a boom-or-bust type. He had three catches or fewer in 10-of-18 games, but when he hits, he hits big.
The former Steeler had games this season with lines of 9/74, 10/88 (twice), 5/113 and 7/124, and he had a touchdown in three of those. He'd need a high-volume game plus a pair of scores to steal it from Mahomes, but Smith-Schuster has been best against zone and the Eagles typically play heavy zone. He has big potential.
Verdict: Smith-Schuster is six times the price of Kelce but could have similar upside against the zone. He's a smarter long shot.
11. Chris Jones (+7000 FanDuel)
If you're looking for a Chiefs defender, Chris Jones is your guy. Jones was a DPOY finalist and had five games with two or more sacks, and he's capable of taking over games.
The narrative on this game has been the Eagles winning in the trenches. If the Chiefs win instead, Jones will be a big reason why. He might need to make the play of the game to win, something like a huge strip sack that puts Hurts down and changes the contest.
Verdict: Not a long enough number to bother.
