In Super Bowls played since the turn of the century, nine non-quarterbacks have won Super Bowl MVP. That includes two wide receivers in the last six years.
While Patrick Mahomes has won the award in all three of his Super Bowl wins, there has been a debate in a couple of those games. Heck, two defensive players won the MVP award in the last 11 years.
So, our experts broke down the odds and laid out the players they think have the best chance of winning Super Bowl MVP.
1. Patrick Mahomes (+120)
By Gilles Gallant
It’s Patrick Mahomes.
Yes, it’s boring, but winning isn’t. The Chiefs have won three Super Bowls and their quarterback has won the MVP award each time. Part of that was gamescript as Mahomes led his team to a second-half comeback in each of those Super Bowl victories.
If the Chiefs win, it will likely be with the passing game. We shouldn’t overthink this.
It’s also another creative way to get value on a Chiefs win at +110 instead of taking their moneyline at -120. When we did our Super Bowl winner draft prior to the postseason, I had first pick and took the Chiefs. I’m staying on brand and backing Mahomes to get another MVP.
2. Jalen Hurts (+350)
By Chris Raybon
Hurts is undervalued due to the presence of Saquon Barkley. A quarterback has won the award in 33-of-58 (56.9%) Super Bowls.
The Eagles’ implied win probability is roughly 45%, and if you multiply that by 56.9%, Hurts’ odds would be roughly 25%. In each of the past two Super Bowls, Steve Spagnuolo’s run defense held a top-five rushing attack to under 3.6 YPC, despite the Chiefs ranking 27th and 15th in defensive rushing DVOA during the regular season. This year’s unit ranked ninth, so there’s a good chance that if the Chiefs lose, Hurts will have to be the one who beats them.
In wins this season, Hurts is averaging 244.1 total yards and 2.33 total touchdown. Hurts is capable of matching the stat lines of recent Super Bowl MVP-winning quarterbacks, such as Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl 57 (226 total yards, 3 total touchdowns) and Tom Brady in Super Bowl 55 (199 total yards, 3 total touchdowns).
I think Mahomes is the most likely winner because I think the Chiefs are more likely to win, but Hurts is the best value on the board.
3. Xavier Worthy (+3100)
By Sean Koerner
The quarterbacks are off the board, so I was the first person to dabble with the “unlikely” winners and the long shots.
It’s tough for a pass catcher to make a case for MVP, but when I took Tee Higgins at 60-1 a few years ago, he had an opening as he caught two touchdowns and one of them was a pass from Joe Mixon, not Joe Burrow.
If the Bengals hung on to win, Higgins likely would have won the award considering he scored a touchdown that wasn’t from Burrow.
Worthy has a similar path in that he tends to get one or two designed run plays per game. If he were to take one of those to the house and/or also catch another touchdown, it would go a long way toward him potentially winning MVP over Mahomes.
4. Travis Kelce (+1800)
By Stuckey
Sadly, Koerner took who I wanted in Xavier Worthy. I really thought he would be available for me, but Kelce is the next-best option, especially since I assume the Chiefs will win a close game, as they usually do.
Since Von Miller won Super Bowl MVP back in 2016, six of the eight Super Bowl MVPs have gone to quarterbacks. The others went to wide receivers.
While Kelce isn't a wide receiver and a tight end has never won this award, he can certainly put up the necessary stat line to get real consideration if the Chiefs win, especially since he has become so popular in the mainstream. After all, it is a subjective award and narratives play a part.
Let's take a look at the stat lines of the two receivers who won MVP:
- Cooper Kupp: 8-for-92 and two touchdowns
- Julian Edelman: 10-for-141
Well, prior to this year's AFC Championship, Kelce amazingly had gone 14 straight playoff games with at least five catches and 70 receiving yards. Here are a few of his best games:
- 11-for-116 with one touchdown
- 14-for-98 with one touchdown
- 13-for-118 with two touchdowns
- 10-for-134 with three touchdowns
- 10-for-133
- 8-for-109 with one touchdown
Those are certainly MVP-caliber stat lines, especially if the game is a bit lower scoring and Kelce has the game-winning touchdown.
I assume the Chiefs are going to go super pass heavy with Mahomes against a stout Eagles run defense considering Kansas City's rushing attack has struggled since moving Joe Thuney to left tackle.
Well, the strength of Philadelphia's pass defense lies on the outside (cornerback) and in their ability to prevent the explosive play. As a result, I expect the Chiefs to attack the middle of the field early and often, which could mean plenty of opportunities for Kelce to put up gaudy numbers after a two-week break.
5. Any Defensive Player (+1500)
By Brandon Anderson
For whatever reason, defenses seem to score an outlier number of touchdowns in the Super Bowl.
We’ve seen 22 defensive touchdowns in 58 Super Bowls, almost all by the winning team, which means at least one defensive touchdown by the winner in 28% of all Super Bowls. I always parlay each team’s defensive touchdown with a moneyline win, a hugely +EV bet if you play year after year.
In a game with a spread of one point, a surprise defensive touchdown changes the entire game, and that’s the sort of thing that wins a small-sample MVP award. We’ve seen nine previous Super Bowls with a defensive MVP, so 15.5% of them, almost one in every six. That’s more defenders than receivers or running backs! It’s the most likely non-quarterback outcome.
You can bet Any Defensive Player to win MVP at most books, so that’s my bet. At some books, you can even play by position to cobble together a better price.
And because they’re priced so long, I don’t mind sprinkling a few long-shot defenders. Linebackers have won three of the past four defensive MVPs. That makes sense since they rack up tackles and are always in the middle of the action.
MVP isn’t just going to the best defender, like Jalen Carter or Chris Jones. It’s only going to a defender who makes a huge splash play or two, like when Nick Bolton returned a fumble for a touchdown against the Eagles in the Super Bowl two years ago and then nearly added a second (it was overturned) that would’ve surely clinched MVP.
I’ll sprinkle Bolton at 400-1 (Caesars) and Philly’s Nolan Smith at 300-1 (BetMGM), who has a sack in five of his past six games.
6. DeVonta Smith (+6600)
By Brandon Anderson
Three guys are the most-likely MVPs, and it’s the obvious three.
Patrick Mahomes isn’t a good bet since he has to win MVP in about 90% of all Chiefs victories to be worth the ticket, and I can’t get there on Saquon Barkley at such short odds when a running back has failed to win MVP in 26 straight Super Bowls. I like Jalen Hurts best outside of the defense bet, but if I’m picking one of the Chiefs or Eagles weapon, DeVonta Smith has the best value on the board.
Smith is Philadelphia’s zone buster, and though Kansas City typically plays heavy man, it’s no secret that Hurts is far better against man and quite subpar against zone. I expect defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to mix in plenty of zone and limit Philly’s rushing attack, so that should mean heavy opportunity for Smith. He’s caught at least 99 yards in all three games against Spags. You can bet 100+ yards at +700 (bet365) if you prefer, but Smith fits the high-volume profile we’ve seen win this award.
It’s pretty obvious that a Philly non-quarterback has a far better shot at stealing the award than a Chief. Smith was 33-1 his last Super Bowl and we’re getting a longer price here than guys like Kareem Hunt and Chris Jones, which is patently absurd. Smith is an excellent value play.
7. A.J. Brown (+350)
By Stuckey
I don’t think A.J. Brown was fully healthy down the stretch, so he could really benefit from the two weeks of rest ahead of the Super Bowl. We could see a fresh and 100% healthy Brown, who is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL when he’s right.
How will the Chiefs approach covering Brown and DeVonta Smith? Your guess is as good as mine. Expect the unexpected with Steve Spagnuolo, but I do anticipate the Chiefs playing plenty of man coverage, which Brown feasts on when healthy.
I also believe the Kansas City defense is a bit overrated after facing so many offenses that had key injuries. The run defense has started to take on water of late, but I envision the primary focus being to slow down Saquon Barkley and make Jalen Hurts win the game with his arm.
If that’s the case, Brown could have a huge day with plenty of opportunities for highlight-reel catches and maybe one or two end zone celebrations. If Hurts also has a few mistakes and Brown catches the game winner with a stat line similar to the receivers we have seen win this in the recent past, he’s got a real shot.
8. Oren Burks (+2000)
By Sean Koerner
Burks has filled in for the injured Nakobe Dean over the past couple of games and has been playing well.
I already took Burks to lead the game in tackles + assists at +320, so I certainly think there is a path for Burks to lead the game in tackles.
But, he still likely needs a splash play or two in order to win the MVP.
He had a sack last week and could play a key role in potentially slowing down Travis Kelce. He does a good job of being around the ball, so there’s also a slight chance he ends up getting a pick-six (or fumble-six).
A lot needs to go right for Burks to win, and it would likely need to be a lower-scoring game, but I think there are enough realistic paths for Burks to sprinkle at 200-1.
9. Saquon Barkley (+280)
By Chris Raybon
A running back hasn’t won since Terrell Davis in 1998, but Barkley is just 30 yards shy of breaking Davis’ record of 2,476 combined regular and postseason rushing yards, so the narrative will be on Barkley’s side.
Looking only at running backs to determine Barkley’s odds likely sells him short. I think it’s more apt to look at non-quarterback offensive skill players, of which there have been five winners over the past 20 years. Four of the five — Deion Branch, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Julian Edelman — had at least 131 scrimmage yards, and the fifth — Cooper Kupp — had only 99 scrimmage yards, but two touchdowns.
Barkley averages 145.3 scrimmage yards and has cleared 131 scrimmage yards in 9-of-19 (47.4%) games. He's also scored multiple touchdowns in 8-of-19 (42.1%) contests.
10. Carson Wentz (+25000)
By Gilles Gallant
I know, you are wondering why the hell would I do this after taking Patrick Mahomes with the first pick. Well, I'm not on drugs, but I’m intoxicated with the idea of a true storybook gamescript in the Super Bowl.
Mahomes starts the game, gets hurt in the first quarter or the first half with the Eagles taking a double-digit lead. Then, Wentz comes into the game and leads the Chiefs to a Super Bowl win over his former team. Magical stuff.
Now, since we already have Mahomes, that’s the pick you would put decent money on. For Wentz, let’s stick to a small stake, like a pizza bet.
I get why some people would look at this as a donation to the sportsbook, but if this scenario were to unfold, wouldn’t you want to at least say you had a pizza-money bet on a game that will be recreated as a Disney movie in 10 years? That’s what I thought.
A Chiefs quarterback is winning Super Bowl MVP. You may as well have both of them covered.
