Super Bowl Odds
Super Bowl 55 is set.
It wasn't pretty, but Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers staved off a second-half comeback from the Green Bay Packers to win the NFC Championship. That means the Bucs will be the first team in NFL history to play in the Super Bowl at their home stadium.
Tampa Bay will host the Kansas City Chiefs, who quickly overcame a hot start from the Buffalo Bills to claim their second straight AFC crown and secure a chance to defend their title.
Our staff has already calculated early projections, placed their bets and analyzed this matchup from more angles. Find our early reactions below.
Super Bowl Predictions
We projected a spread using the team ratings of the analysts who power our NFL PRO Projections.
- Spread: Chiefs -2.3
- Total: 56.5
Early Super Bowl Picks & Analysis
Bets We Made Right Away: Sportsbooks offered the hook on the underdog, and our analysts bit. » Read More
Super Bowl MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady are unsurprisingly at the top of the board, but who are the most likely non-QBs? » Read More
50-1 to NFC Champs: We've outlined the full evolution of the Bucs' Super Bowl odds. » Read More
Trends That Favor the Chiefs: Matthew Freedman breaks down two trends that support why he likes Kansas City to cover. » Read More
What Home-Field Advantage Really Means For Bucs: Tampa Bay will play the Super Bowl … in Tampa Bay, but our staff doesn't see much of an advantage as a result. » Read More
Super Bowl Date & Location
- Date: Sunday, Feb. 7
- Location: Tampa Bay, Florida
Despite the Pro Bowl cancellation, Super Bowl 55 will still kick off exactly two weeks after Championship Sunday. It'll be played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, which means the Buccaneers will be playing on their home field.
How Kansas City Reached Super Bowl 55
- Regular Season Record: 14-2
- Wild Card Round: Bye
- Divisional Round: Beat the Browns, 22-17
- AFC Championship: Beat the Bills, 38-24
Patrick Mahomes, that’s how.
The MVP candidate was nearly flawless over the regular season, throwing 38 touchdowns to just six interceptions and finishing second in the NFL with 4,740 yards. He was second in passing yards to Deshaun Watson, and that’s only because Mahomes sat out Week 17 with the Chiefs already owning the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Kansas City’s lone defeat with Mahomes under center came in Week 5 to the Raiders, but the Chiefs responded with a 10-win streak and quickly quieted any concerns that came out of the loss.
Going over their regular-season total of 11.5 wins was never really in doubt.
Even though Kansas City was almost unbeatable on the field, bettors weren’t rewarded. Often faced with large spreads, the Chiefs were 7-8 against the spread in the 15 regular-season games Mahomes started.
How Tampa Bay Reached Super Bowl 55
- Regular Season Record: 11-5
- Wild Card Round: Beat Washington, 31-23
- Divisional Round: Beat the Saints, 30-20
- NFC Championship: Beat the Packers, 31-26
After opening as a +5000 longshot, Tampa Bay skyrocketed up the Super Bowl odds board after signing Tom Brady, emerging from free agency with the fifth-best odds to win the NFC.
And while a pair of losses to the division-winning Saints ultimately kept the Bucs from the NFC South crown and a home playoff game, they still cruised to and through the playoffs as a wild-card team.
Now the question is whether his arsenal of weapons and their stout defense will be enough to secure Brady his seventh ring — at the very least, they'll have a chance.
